Part One: Seven companies now account for a third of the total value of the US S&P 500 – and the bulk of their collective trillions in market value happens to come from marketers and advertising. It’s a crazy number, but Terry Kawaja, the fast talking banker, considered by some the ‘godfather’ of adtech start-up investment, says another wave of advertising and marketing related tech spin offs are incoming that’s making him a little more bullish than the cooling of the past 18 months.
Kawaja’s New York firm Luma Partners is behind the Lumascape spaghetti maps that try to make sense of the sprawling, connected pipes of the adtech industry. Kawaja thinks consolidation has to happen for the industry to shake the cowboys – “the environment is highly fragmented and that allows people to hide,” he says.
That’s code for nefarious market behaviour which undermines adtech’s credibility - and Kawaja argues a clean digital ad system is more important now than ever if open web players are to compete with big tech, especially as he sees retail media quickly eating a third of open web ad dollars.
But there’s little sign of that consolidation right now and Kawaja admits adtech is still notoriously opportunistic and has played a starring role in the creation of some of the problems the market is struggling to address with junk digital data, fake people and opaque trading practices that nobody seems able to solve.
Regardless, Kawaja says another wave of tech investment is coming and for good measure and says Google’s pervasive global advertising trading system being broken up would have huge financial upside for Alphabet shareholders – and the industry at large. The US Department of Justice has been landing punches over the past three weeks in its current US Federal District Court adtech "monopoly” trial against Google.
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