logo
episode-header-image
Dec 2022
24m 20s

Your Estimates Suck

37signals
About this episode

"Getting out of estimates and getting into appetites and budgets is the single most important thing that we have instituted," - David Heinemeier Hansson 

 

Today, Jason Fried and David Heinemeier Hansson, the co-founders of 37signals, discuss their chapter in Rework on why estimating is not the road to completing projects and what has helped them get things done in their business for over twenty years.

 

Show Notes: 

 

[00:42] - David shares why it's time to accept that we're awful at estimating.

[03:27] - Why estimating is 'an amazing example of the human optimism to overcome its own fundamental flaws in a way that's just wholesomely unrealistic.'

[04:48] - What 37signals does instead of estimating as relayed in Shape Up.

[05:49] - Jason asks how much you are willing to spend (or lose) in gambling (and software development projects).

[08:13] - The worst situation to be in for rational decision-making.

[09:00] - Why it's vital to stick to your limits.

[10:29] - "Getting out of estimates and getting into appetites and budgets is the single most important thing that we have instituted as a barrier for our software development process over all these years."

[12:47] - In software development, no one—from the owner of the company to the end user—gets everything they want; staying within your parameters is about trading concessions. 

[14:15] - You need to keep the engine moving because software development is like baking bread on an industrial scale.  

[16:19] - You produce what you practice. 

[16:57] - You don't cut corners or quality, you cut scope, and if you can't, you scrap the project. 

[18:15] - Losing the right things prevents you from missing out on other opportunities. 

[19:48] - Forecasting the next ten years, six weeks at a time. 

[20:33] - Shortening planning cycles improves your ability to determine your next steps with more accurate information. 

[21:15] - 'We're making a ton of progress with a small team with a product that's been around for 18 years - so it works!'

[23:21] - Why keep doing things that don't work?

 

Links and Resources:

Rework 

Shape Up
Dev.37signals
Sign Up for 30-day FREE trial at Basecamp.com

37signals on YouTube
The REWORK podcast

The 37signals Dev Blog

@reworkpodcast on Twitter

@37signals on Twitter

Up next
Jun 18
Managing chaos, feature bloat, and other listener questions
In this episode of The REWORK Podcast, 37signals co-founders Jason Fried and David Heinemeier Hansson answer a fresh round of listener questions. They share how they stay focused when new ideas pop up, how structured work periods lead to steady progress, and why they’re careful a ... Show More
22m 58s
Jun 11
Building in Public
This week on The REWORK Podcast, host Kimberly Rhodes chats with 37signals' CEO and co-founder Jason Fried about the practice of openly sharing what the company is working on, inspired by his recent teaser videos for an upcoming product, Fizzy. Jason explains why building in publ ... Show More
20m 24s
Jun 4
The case for cover lettters
This week on The REWORK Podcast, host Kimberly Rhodes is joined by Jason Fried to talk about cover letters — what they say about a candidate, how they’re reviewed at 37signals, and why they still matter. Jason shares his take on the value of genuine effort, how AI can either help ... Show More
21m 35s
Recommended Episodes
Mar 2019
How To Make Every Penny Work Like a Dollar
A lot of companies are going to go out of business over the next decade for one main reason: Humans don’t like change. If you’re plan to be in business for the long term and you’re holding “what worked” in the past on a pedestal, I really hope this podcast changes the way you loo ... Show More
52m 52s
Dec 2022
415 - The Power of Perseverance | Just One More | Real-life motivation
Steve Guilfoile is one of the best relationship builders we’ve ever met. About a year ago, he and his business partner, Shane Shafer, talked with us about how they successfully built AffordaCare Insurance by providing value to potential customers before ever asking for their busi ... Show More
16m 59s
Jan 2025
Run Your Quarter Like a CEO
Send us a textEvery new year feels like a new chance to go after the big, audacious goals of your dreams. But as recent years have shown, you need to have adaptable plans for your business so that it can have the flexibility it needs while still getting the results you want. That ... Show More
55m 52s
Apr 2024
You Have a Revenue Goal - Now What?
Send us a textAfter setting a revenue goal for your business, the next question on your mind might be, “How do I actually reach my goal?” If that’s you, then you’ll love this episode! In it, I dive even deeper into the actual math behind your revenue goal using real numbers to he ... Show More
39m 7s
Oct 2023
SZN1: Diligently Doing "Due Diligence" in Your Next Manufacturing Acquisition, 377
You’ve found your acquisition target. They’ve committed to selling you the business. Now the real work begins. It’s time for due diligence. Where does due diligence start? What factors should you consider? How do you build a checklist?  Jason, Nick, Adam Schmitt, and I tackle due ... Show More
21m 35s
Jan 2021
137: Estimate Tasks and Projects with Greater Accuracy with Jessica Katz
Most of us are terrible at estimating how long work will take. For any given task, that may not matter. But if you’re trying to plan your week or create a project plan with your team, the lack of accurate forecasting can become a major point of frustration and stress. In this epi ... Show More
30m 39s
Mar 2023
438 - Discover What It Means to Think Like a CEO
Darin Stubbs is the executive vice president at Symmetry Financial Group. If you’re an entrepreneur who’s just starting out, has hit a lull, or can’t get momentum—or if you simply want more of what being your own boss promises—then we guarantee that Darin’s advice and insight wil ... Show More
28m 18s
Dec 2020
What are You Willing to Sacrifice | Ep 263
Ask yourself, is it really worth your time and effort? Today, Alex (@AlexHormozi) talks about the decision-making process that he uses to evaluate opportunities that don’t just apply to entrepreneurs, but to anyone in general. Welcome to The Game w/Alex Hormozi, hosted by entrepr ... Show More
17 m
Jun 2024
Your Business Is NOT What You Think It is | Ep 724
“People don’t know the actual business they’re in.” Today, Alex (@AlexHormozi) dives into the core elements driving business success, emphasizing the significance of sales, marketing, brand, media, and distribution. Using real-world case studies, he illustrates strategic pivots a ... Show More
42m 4s
Jan 2021
280. How Core Values Drive Your Purpose
In a world full of choices, deciding what matters most can be tricky. We know extraordinary success is about leaning into our priorities and avoiding distractions—but how do we know when to say yes and when to say no?Many people are searching for purpose. They want clarity on Tha ... Show More
44m 55s