Notes on the Week Ahead

The Investment Implications of the Refund Surge

Why Money Doesn’t Talk Any More

The Inflation Outlook

The Investment Implications of Weaker Labor Supply

The Fed Decisions

Underreacting and then Overreacting to Policy Shocks

The Investment Implications of a Falling Dollar

OBBBA and a Cold, Hot, Cold Forecast

Tariffs and Inflation

Economic Sogginess and the Market Party

The Macro Jigsaw

Policy and the Investment Landscape: An Update

A Softer Sort of Slowdown

Tracking the Economic Slowdown

Recession Risks, Resilience and American Exceptionalism

Tariff Turmoil and Investment Strategy

Fiscal Fudge

The Wait and See Economy

The Trouble with Tariffs

The Implications of Slowing Population Growth

The Growth Drag from Policy Uncertainty

Europe: The Slow and Steady Train

The Investment Implications of the Trade War

White House Actions, Fed Reactions and Investing

The Big Picture on Debt, Deficits and Interest Rates

Interest Rates, Inflation and the Uncertainty Tax

Stability and Extremes

Reading Between the Lines (On the Direction of Monetary Policy)

Initial Conditions

Irish Lessons

Policy Changes and the Macro Outlook

The Investment Implications of the Republican Sweep

Finding Balance in a Broadening Expansion

The Deficit, the Election and Interest Rates

Four Banks and the Dollar

The Investment Implications of the Wealth Surge

The Investment Implications of a $769,900,000,000 Mistake

Previewing the Fed: Easy Does It

The Jobs Mosaic

Demographics, Debt, the Dollar and Apocalyptic Assets

Jackson Hole and the Speed of Fed Easing

The Outlook for Housing in a Macro Game of Inches

The Slowdown Scenario

Concentration Risk as the Fed gets Ready to Cut

Is 4.1% Unemployment a Recession Warning?

Expansion on Broadway

Risks and Exposure

The Wide and Foggy Road

The Normalization of an Abnormal Job Market

The Causes and Consequences of Gloom and Doom