logo
episode-header-image
Jun 9
10m 30s

Economic Sogginess and the Market Party

DR. DAVID KELLY
About this episode

When we bought our first home, the builder neglected to mention that it was built upon a river. Of course a river at the bottom of a garden is a charming sight. Something that seeps up through the cellar is less attractive, and so, in due course, the builder was called back to install a sump pump. Our young sons were fascinated by the hole in the basement floor and the coppery water that flowed at the bottom and wondered whether, with the help of makeshift fishing poles, it could yield some fish.

Up next
Jul 7
The Investment Implications of a Falling Dollar
Despite very significant shifts in U.S. economic policy and major geopolitical events, investors can look back at the first half of 2025 with some satisfaction. Through July 3rd, the S&P500 provided a total return of 7.5% for the year, despite being on the brink of a bear market ... Show More
9m 45s
Jun 30
OBBBA and a Cold, Hot, Cold Forecast
On Tuesday, we will release our third quarter 2025 Guide to the Markets. On Wednesday, we will host conference calls with financial professionals to discuss the outlook. It’s an outlook dominated by the impact of dramatic policy changes on a relatively slow-growing U.S. economy. ... Show More
9m 29s
Jun 23
Tariffs and Inflation
Investors this week will be focused on the implications of the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. While this is clearly a very significant event from a geopolitical perspective, it may be less important for financial markets. The key issue is how Iran responds. One often- ... Show More
12m 19s
Recommended Episodes
Aug 2024
All Eyes on Jobs Data
Our CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist explains why there’s pressure for the August jobs report to come in strong -- and what may happen to the market if it doesn’t.  ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief US Equi ... Show More
4m 22s
Aug 2024
Market Rebounds but Growth Is Uncertain
Although markets have recovered over the last few weeks after a sudden drop, our Head of Corporate Credit Research warns that investors are still skeptical about the growth outlook. ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Cre ... Show More
3m 17s
Oct 2024
Markets Spin Toward Cyclicals
A slump in tech stocks may explain the market rotation – but it’s the earnings season that investors need to watch, says CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist Mike Wilson. ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief US Eq ... Show More
4m 18s
Apr 28
What Should Investors Expect from Earnings Season?
Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses how market volatility over the last month will affect equity markets as earnings season begins. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.  ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morga ... Show More
3m 56s
Aug 2024
Market Minutes Recap - Market Update (Perspectives on the JOLTS report, the Case-Shiller, the Employment Cost Index, the Employment Situation Summary, the recent FOMC meeting, and the VIX index)
In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the JOLTS report, the Case-Shiller, the Employment Cost Index, the Employment Situati ... Show More
21m 59s
Mar 2025
Is the Correction Over Yet?
Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains the stock market tumble and whether investors can hope for a rally. ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast ... Show More
5m 33s
Jul 2024
US Housing: What Will Slow Home Price Growth?
Record-high prices remain a key concern for buyers in the U.S. housing market. Our Co-Heads of Securitized Product Research dig into the data, explaining why they still believe a deceleration in home price growth will come. ----- Transcript ----- Jay Bacow: Welcome to Thoughts on ... Show More
6m 55s
Sep 2024
Markets Readying for a Rate Cut
With the Federal Reserve poised to make its long-awaited rate cut this week, our CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist tells us why investors have pivoted their concerns from high inflation to slowing growth.  ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson ... Show More
4m 25s
Apr 2024
What Does 3.5% Inflation Really Mean?
On today’s show we are taking a look at the Macro economy. The bureau of Labor and Statistics published the latest CPI data which came in a bit hotter than expected. This is implying that the Fed will need to keep interest rates higher for longer to combat inflation. The Fed keep ... Show More
6m 38s
Apr 25
Tariffs Could Drag on Growth in Asia as Well as U.S.
Our U.S. and Asia economists Michael Gapen and Chetan Ahya discuss how tariff uncertainty is shaping their expectations for these economies over the second half of 2025. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.  ----- Transcript ----- Michael Gapen: Welcome to Thoughts on the Mark ... Show More
11m 19s