We live at a time when extreme voices get the most attention and so it is tempting, following a string of weak economic numbers, to yell the word “recession”. However, a balanced assessment of demand and supply suggests that we are, thus far, merely transitioning to slower growth. A slower growth path is a more vulnerable one, particularly because excessive ... Show More
Sep 21
The PCE-CPI Gap and the Outlook for Further Fed Tightening
On balance, I don’t believe that the Federal Reserve should have raised interest rates last week. However, I must confess that there was one reference in Chairman Warsh’s press conference that left me distinctly uneasy. He noted that year-over-year inflation rates, as measured by ... Show More
12m 3s
Sep 14
The Fed Paints itself into a Rate-Hiking Corner
In the Broadway musical, Fiddler on the Roof, Tevye, the well-meaning patriarch of a poor family, has to make some tough choices in a complicated time. Tevye, (who always reminded me of my father-in-law, Bill), has trouble deciding and three times during the play the music comes ... Show More
10m 46s
Jul 2023
S&P's Gruenwald: There must be 'a landing, 'there will be a slowdown'
Paul Gruenwald, chief economist for S&P Global Ratings, says that the economy must land but the question is 'Can it land in a reasonably smooth way or do we have a sharp correction downward' that triggers a recession. Gruenwald says the Federal Reserve has been surprising the mar ... Show More
59m 47s
Sep 2023
Signaling a soft landing?
The latest U.S. jobs numbers appear to be at odds with other indicators in the economy. While recession remains the most likely scenario for many countries, could there still be a chance for a soft landing? This episode, Chief Economist Eric Lascelles, gets into the latest econom ... Show More
15m 45s