logo
episode-header-image
Sep 2024
15m 5s

Lessons from the Rowdy VIX

Dean Curnutt
About this episode

Three hundred odd years ago, Sir Isaac Newton told us that “no great discovery was ever made without a bold guess.” My sense is he didn’t have the order book in Emini futures in mind, but his words do translate well to our world of financial instruments. In this short pod, I revisit the events of August 5th, a day when prices normally well discovered went dark. The implications are real and we ought to learn from this short-lived but real episode of instability. As we approach the “4 E’s” – employment, earnings, the election and the easing cycle – there’s a good deal to consider with respect to playing defense in markets.  I hope you find this interesting and useful.

Up next
Jun 30
Benn Eifert, Founder and CIO, QVR Advisors
The clearing price of optionality in the market is impacted by a myriad of factors. To be sure, the economy and corporate profit cycle, the stance of monetary policy and geopolitical risk all matter. Flows in the derivatives markets are also of consequence as they impact the envi ... Show More
50m 44s
Jun 17
John Marshall, Head of Derivatives Research, Goldman Sachs
It was a pleasure to welcome John Marshall, Head of Derivatives Research at Goldman Sachs, to the Alpha Exchange. Our conversation explores a number of critical topics starting with the meaningful growth of equity funds deploying options as part of a risk management overlay. John ... Show More
1 h
Jun 14
Sayings on Vol and Risk...A Fresh 10
Greetings and salutations loyal listeners, welcome to what promises to be another exciting addition to our Sayings on Vol and Risk. To set the table, last year, I did a 5-part series with 25 Sayings. These are concise statements I’ve wound up using many times over during the cour ... Show More
21m 5s
Recommended Episodes
Apr 10
Equity markets spring back, for now
Following President Trump’s ‘pause’ announcement yesterday, US And Asian equity indices experienced a relief rally of historic proportions. The punitive tariffs imposed on dozens of countries have now been swapped for a universal 10% rate, but only for 90 days. It remains to be s ... Show More
13m 35s
Dec 2024
Rate drop, market drop
The Federal Reserve announced a small cut yesterday. Normally, that heartens markets. But we are not in normal times, and somewhat measured comments about the coming year seemed to have spooked traders. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter try to figure out what happ ... Show More
19m 36s
Nov 2024
Sometimes good just isn’t good enough
The market’s reaction to Nvidia’s highly anticipated results last night indicates just how high expectations were. The company’s results exceeded analysts’ expectations and it delivered a strong forecast for the current quarter, but the revenue forecast just wasn’t enough for the ... Show More
11m 31s
Apr 10
Why The Big Short is Not Short Right Now
Steve Eisman, who was profiled in the terrific book and movie, "The Big Short", explains why he's not shorting any parts of the market right now, but what he would bet against under certain conditions. He explains what's different about this recent volatility and the Great Financ ... Show More
21m 40s
Sep 2024
Another quiet session ahead of today's FOMC meeting
It was an up-and-down session for US equities yesterday. Markets reacted positively to stronger-than-expected US economic data before worrying about getting ahead of itself before today’s US central bank meeting. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about the unusual ... Show More
11m 5s
Sep 2024
Peter Schiff: Act NOW to Avoid Debt and Dollar Debacle
Crushing government debt. A deepening recession. A collapsing US dollar. Chaos in the financial markets. It could soon be headed your way. But all is not lost, either. Target the right commodities, stocks, and markets, and you won’t just come out relatively unscathed. You’ll have ... Show More
21m 36s
Aug 2024
The Economics Show with Soumaya Keynes: What’s wrong with economics?
This week, we’re bringing you something from our fellow FT podcast, The Economics Show with Soumaya Keynes.  Sir Angus Deaton won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2015. So when he says he is rethinking many of his assumptions about the field, it matters. Today on the show, Soumaya ... Show More
34m 42s
Apr 2024
The Great Liquidity Debate | Michael Howell & George Robertson on Monetary vs. Fiscal Flows And What Is Truly Driving This Bull Market
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.__Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and George Robertson of The Monetary Fronteir have tw ... Show More
1h 34m
Apr 1
Gold shines brighter as Liberation Day looms
European markets dropped yesterday but US stocks rebounded and the S&P 500 index closed up 0.6%, although this wasn’t enough to stop the benchmark index from posting its worst month in two years. Gold hit a fresh all-time high, up 1.2%, as investors sought safety amid concerns ov ... Show More
11m 23s
Aug 2024
What's Behind Last Week's Stock Market Drama
Send us a textThis Monday was one of the worst days for global stock markets in years, Stocks in the US, Europe and Japan tanked on Friday and again on Monday before a partial rebound. Bond yields and foreign exchange rates swung around wildly too.The Magnificent seven stocks los ... Show More
26m 10s