In January of 2023, a time where extreme pessimism on stocks and the economy reigned, Sam Burns, founder of Mill Street Research, shared his bullish outlook on equities with Jack. Now that his prediction has come true, Sam returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he is much less overweight on equities now than in January, but that he remains somewhat constructive on risk assets even as he expects a modest slowdown in 2024. Filmed on November 3, 2023.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:59) Less Overweight Equities Than In January... But Still Overweight
(06:54) Monitor of Analysts’ Earnings Revisions (MAER)
(11:31) The Housing Market (& Homebuilding Industry)
(15:18) The Banks
(16:50) Commercial Real Estate (CRE)
(18:43) Healthcare & Commodity Sectors
(20:18) Chinese Stocks
(23:55) S&P 500 Earnings Estimates
(31:40) Equity Momentum Has Weakened
(34:39) Disinflation Will Continue, The Soft Landing Is Here
(42:40) At What Point Does Global Manufacturing & Trade Downturn Impact The U.S. Economy?
(48:10) Fiscal Tailwinds In The U.S.
(54:20) If Interest Rates Decline, Soft Landing Very Likely
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.