285 | Nate Silver on Prediction, Risk, a...

"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold," wrote W.B. Yeats. I don't know about the centre, but the tendency of things to fall apart is pretty universal, ultimately due to the Second Law of Thermodynamics. Anyone living in a society or involved with technology must therefore be ... Show More

At any given moment, an uncountable number of events are happening, but only some of them matter to us. What does it mean for something to matter, and more importantly, what does it mean for us to matter -- to ourselves as well as to others? The need to matter can be motivation t ... Show More

It's become increasingly clear that the Turing Test -- determining whether human interlocutors can tell whether a conversation is being carried out by a human or a machine -- is not a good way to think about consciousness. Modern LLMs can mimic human conversation with extraordina ... Show More

<p>Quite often the ideas of 'risk' and of 'uncertainty' get bandied about interchangeably, but there's a world of difference between them and it matters greatly when that distinction gets lost.</p> <p>That's a key message from <a href= "https://www.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/staff/gerd-g ... Show More

<p>Nate Silver (On the Edge, The Signal and the Noise, Baseball Between the Numbers) is a statistician, author, and founder of FiveThirtyEight. Nate joins the Armchair Expert to discuss his youthful aspirations for a starter job as US president with a promotion to baseball commis ... Show More

<p>Sam Harris speaks with Nate Silver about cultural attitudes toward risk and the state of American politics. They discuss the erosion of trust in liberal institutions, polling and political narratives, different camps of cultural elites, the influence of Silicon Valley, Peter T ... Show More

Making good predictions is tough. We think we know more than we do and let emotions and biases creep in. How do some forecasters beat the odds? Our hosts, Nico and Sam, chat about the book "The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver exploring why predictions fail and uncovering pra ... Show More

Nate Silver is a statistician, writer of Silver Bulletin, and Founder of FiveThirtyEight. No one truly knows who will win an election, but if anyone does, it's Nate. He is the man behind the most accurate, sophisticated polling data assessments in America and has an insight into ... Show More

<p>You may know Nate Silver as an election forecaster. But he’s a poker player as well. And his experiences operating in a world of competition and risk led him to explore what his fellow gamblers, as well as hedge fund managers, venture capitalists, and many other kinds of maver ... Show More

Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight and Substack writer of “Silver Bulletin,” joins Scott to discuss his latest book, “ON THE EDGE: The Art of Risking Everything.” We hear about the role of risk in shaping modern life, his background in election forecasting, and his thoug ... Show More

In this week’s episode of No Priors, Sarah sits down with Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi—the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the U.S. They dive into Kalshi’s recent victory to legalize election betting, explore ethical questions around trading on elections, and d ... Show More

Doyne Farmer is something of a rebel. Back in the seventies, when he was a student, he walked into a casino in Las Vegas, sat down at a roulette table and beat the house. To anyone watching the wheel spin and the ball clatter to its final resting place, his choice of number would ... Show More

<p dir="ltr">In episode 439 of The Brainy Business podcast, Melina Palmer welcomes William Mailer, Chief Behavioral Scientist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, to discuss the intersection of behavioral science and financial well-being. William, who leads the bank's Behavioral Sc ... Show More