You may know Nate Silver as an election forecaster. But he’s a poker player as well. And his experiences operating in a world of competition and risk led him to explore what his fellow gamblers, as well as hedge fund managers, venture capitalists, and many other kinds of maverick types do differently than other people.
Amongst the findings Nate shares in hi ... Show More
May 12
How Constraints Help You Focus, Create, and Finish
Back in 2019, David Epstein joined me to talk about his book Range and why generalists often thrive in a specialized world. Now he’s back with a new book that explores a seemingly opposite idea: the power of constraints. In Inside the Box, David argues that limits — deadlines, bo ... Show More
45m 2s
May 5
Why Screen Time Leaves You Exhausted — And How to Reverse Its Effects
You hear a lot today about how our ample screentime is affecting our mental health. But how is it affecting our bodies, and how is that impact on our bodies affecting, well, our mental health?My guest today will unpack the ways that digital technology is sapping our vitality, and ... Show More
50m 56s
Apr 28
A Map for Finding Direction and Purpose in Life (Again and Again)
While we often think of life as linear, my guest’s own life, along with a decade of research, has taught him that it’s anything but. In his latest book, What to Make of a Life, Jim Collins unpacks the cyclical pattern life actually unfolds in, and how to navigate it. He explains ... Show More
58m 15s
Sep 2024
Why you should take more risks, with Nate Silver
Every career involves choices; every choice involves risk. But being able to size up those risks, and think coolly about which are worth taking, can make the process of choosing between options much easier. The problem? Most of us aren’t actually very good at evaluating risk. In ... Show More
17m 30s
Nov 2024
TIP677: You Can Be a Stock Market Genius w/ Roger Fan
On today’s episode, Clay is joined by Roger Fan to discuss Joel Greenblatt’s book, “You can be a Stock Market Genius.” Joel Greenblatt is one of the greatest hedge fund managers of all time. Greenblatt famously averaged 40% a year over 20 years. At that rate, $1 million grows int ... Show More
1h 9m
Aug 2024
Smart vs. Stupid Risk Taking — with Nate Silver
Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight and Substack writer of “Silver Bulletin,” joins Scott to discuss his latest book, “ON THE EDGE: The Art of Risking Everything.” We hear about the role of risk in shaping modern life, his background in election forecasting, and his thoug ... Show More
42 m
Apr 2025
TIP715: Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke
In this episode, Clay explores the book Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke, a guide to making better decisions under uncertainty. Drawing from her career as a professional poker player, Annie shares how to separate decision quality from outcomes and avoid the trap of “resulting.” Cla ... Show More
56m 10s
Feb 2025
Nate Silver (statistician)
<p>Nate Silver (On the Edge, The Signal and the Noise, Baseball Between the Numbers) is a statistician, author, and founder of FiveThirtyEight. Nate joins the Armchair Expert to discuss his youthful aspirations for a starter job as US president with a promotion to baseball commis ... Show More
1h 32m
Feb 2025
TIP699: Unlocking High-Growth Investments w/ Jason Donville and Jesse Gamble
In today's episode, Kyle Grieve chats with Jason Donville and Jesse Gamble about their investing philosophy, their emphasis on focusing on growth and value, their evolution from using ROE-focused metrics to the rule of 40 to identify great investing opportunities, how to use the ... Show More
1h 4m
Nov 2024
TIP678: Mastering Focus Investing: Lessons From The Legends w/ Kyle Grieve
On today’s episode, Kyle Grieve discusses major takeaways from the book The Warren Buffett Portfolio, including why concentrated portfolios offer the highest probabilities of outperforming, how focus investors think about risk, Warren Buffett’s four-step framework for identifying ... Show More
58m 25s
Aug 2024
RWH048: Betting Billions On Outlier Talent w/ Adam Shapiro
In this episode, William Green chats with Adam Shapiro, Managing Partner at East Rock Capital. Adam oversees billions on behalf of eight vastly rich families, allocating their assets to everything from hedge funds to private equity. Here, he explains how to build & safeguard weal ... Show More
1h 55m
<p>Former professional poker player Annie Duke wrote a book about Steve’s favorite subject: quitting. They talk about why quitting is so hard, how to do it sooner, and why we feel shame when we do something that’s good for us.</p><p> </p><ul><li><strong>SOURCES:</strong><ul><li>< ... Show More
