You may know Nate Silver as an election forecaster. But he’s a poker player as well. And his experiences operating in a world of competition and risk led him to explore what his fellow gamblers, as well as hedge fund managers, venture capitalists, and many other kinds of maverick types do differently than other people.Amongst the findings Nate shares in his ... Show More
Sep 15
The 3-Step System for Simplifying Your Work and Life
When people are faced with problems and complexity, our instinct is to add instead of subtract. As a result, we have a tendency to make our work and our lives more and more complex, and less and less effective and fulfilling. Even when what we add is new technology that promises ... Show More
46m 29s
Sep 8
If I Don’t Return: A General's Wartime Journal for His Sons
When Mark Hertling learned he was deploying for Operation Desert Storm, he decided to start a journal.Back then, Mark was an Army major and cavalry officer with two young sons. His unit would be out in front of the main force, and during an intelligence briefing, he was told it c ... Show More
48m 2s
Aug 2024
Smart vs. Stupid Risk Taking — with Nate Silver
Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight and Substack writer of “Silver Bulletin,” joins Scott to discuss his latest book, “ON THE EDGE: The Art of Risking Everything.” We hear about the role of risk in shaping modern life, his background in election forecasting, and his thoug ... Show More
42 m
Sep 2024
Why you should take more risks, with Nate Silver
Every career involves choices; every choice involves risk. But being able to size up those risks, and think coolly about which are worth taking, can make the process of choosing between options much easier. The problem? Most of us aren’t actually very good at evaluating risk. In ... Show More
17m 30s
Aug 2025
Nate Silver on Life's Mixed Strategies
In his third appearance on Conversations with Tyler, Nate Silver looks back at past predictions, weighs how academic ideas such as expected utility theory fare in practice, and examines the world of sports through the lens of risk and prediction. Tyler and Nate dive into expected ... Show More
1h 3m
Feb 2025
Nate Silver (statistician)
Nate Silver (On the Edge, The Signal and the Noise, Baseball Between the Numbers) is a statistician, author, and founder of FiveThirtyEight. Nate joins the Armchair Expert to discuss his youthful aspirations for a starter job as US president with a promotion to baseball commissio ... Show More
1h 32m
Oct 2022
How to outthink your competition -- with a lesson from sports | Rasmus Ankersen
Does success come from luck or skill, and how do you tell the difference? One way to find an answer: think like a pro gambler does, says football executive Rasmus Ankersen. Using sports analytics to emphasize his point, Ankersen digs into the reasons why successful companies ofte ... Show More
16m 16s
Apr 2025
TIP715: Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke
In this episode, Clay explores the book Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke, a guide to making better decisions under uncertainty. Drawing from her career as a professional poker player, Annie shares how to separate decision quality from outcomes and avoid the trap of “resulting.” Cla ... Show More
56m 10s
Mar 2019
#53 Howard Marks: Luck, Risk and Avoiding Losers
Billionaire investor, author and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks discusses risk assessment, how to think different than the crowd, and the three mighty dares that separate the successful from the also-rans. Go Premium: Members get early access, ad-free episodes, hand-e ... Show More
1h 33m