logo
episode-header-image
Jun 2023
9m 43s

Waiting for a Negative

DR. DAVID KELLY
About this episode

I have a sad tale to relate.  After dodging Covid for the last three years, my wife Sari and I were at a wedding two weeks ago and the virus decided to crash the party.  Two days later, I tested positive and Sari tested negative.  I’ll spare you the grim details, since almost everyone has had a similar experience.  However, despite only mild and fleeting symptoms, I experienced a rebound and so I’m sitting alone, testing daily, and waiting for a negative so I can return to society.

Investors in 2023 have also been waiting for a negative.  Waiting to see if economic growth would turn negative.  Waiting for a well-established negative trend on inflation.  And waiting for the Federal Reserve to perceive enough general negativity to stop raising interest rates.  As the first half of the year draws to a close, the wait continues.  However, in rather sharp contrast to my predicament, there is plenty that investors can do while they wait.

Up next
Jul 7
The Investment Implications of a Falling Dollar
Despite very significant shifts in U.S. economic policy and major geopolitical events, investors can look back at the first half of 2025 with some satisfaction. Through July 3rd, the S&P500 provided a total return of 7.5% for the year, despite being on the brink of a bear market ... Show More
9m 45s
Jun 30
OBBBA and a Cold, Hot, Cold Forecast
On Tuesday, we will release our third quarter 2025 Guide to the Markets. On Wednesday, we will host conference calls with financial professionals to discuss the outlook. It’s an outlook dominated by the impact of dramatic policy changes on a relatively slow-growing U.S. economy. ... Show More
9m 29s
Jun 23
Tariffs and Inflation
Investors this week will be focused on the implications of the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. While this is clearly a very significant event from a geopolitical perspective, it may be less important for financial markets. The key issue is how Iran responds. One often- ... Show More
12m 19s
Recommended Episodes
Jan 2023
Mike Wilson: Challenging the Consensus on 2023
As 2023 begins, most market participants agree the first half of the year could be challenging. But when we dig into the details, that's where the agreement ends. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equ ... Show More
4m 18s
Jun 2022
Mike Wilson: The Increasing Risk of Recession
As price to earnings multiples fall and inflation continues to weigh on the economy, long term earnings estimates may still be too high as the risk of a recession rises. -----Transcript----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U. ... Show More
4m 2s
Jan 2024
Andrew Sheets: Why 2024 Is Off to a Rocky Start
Should investors be concerned about a sluggish beginning to the year, or do they just need to be patient? ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a varie ... Show More
3m 6s
Jan 2023
Mike Wilson: Fighting the Fear of Missing Out
Stocks have seen a much better start to 2023 than anticipated. But can this upswing continue, or is this merely the last bear market rally before the market reaches its final lows? ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer ... Show More
3m 44s
Oct 2022
U.S. Housing: Are Home Prices Decelerating?
As month over month data begins to show a downturn in home prices, will overall price growth and sales begin to fall steeper than expected? Co-Heads of U.S. Securitized Products Research Jim Egan and Jay Bacow discuss. ----- Transcript ----- Jim Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the M ... Show More
6m 52s
Oct 2023
Le temps des paradoxes
En dépit d'une économie américaine qui semble toujours en surchauffe, les résultats des entreprises cotées donnent des signes de faiblesse. Je vous rappelle qu'il y a peu, on ne cessait de parler de récession pendant que les marges des sociétés ne cessaient de monter. Les investi ... Show More
7m 36s
Dec 2022
End-of-Year Encore: Ellen Zentner - Is the U.S. Headed for a Soft Landing?
Original Release on December 2nd, 2022: While 2022 saw the fastest pace of policy tightening on record, has the Fed’s hiking cycle properly set the U.S. economy up for a soft landing in 2023? ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stan ... Show More
4m 53s
Sep 2022
Mike Wilson: A Sudden Drop for Stocks and Bonds
After last week’s Fed meeting and another rate hike, both stocks and bonds dropped back to June lows. The question is, will this turn to the downside continue to accelerate? ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Ch ... Show More
3m 50s
Nov 2022
2023 European Outlook: Recession & Beyond
As we head into a new year, Europe faces multiple challenges across inflation, energy and financial conditions, meaning investors will want to keep an eye on recession risk, the ECB, and European equities. Chief European Equity Strategist Graham Secker and Chief European economis ... Show More
7m 6s
Oct 2022
Mike Wilson: Earnings Begin to Guide Lower
Last week stocks rallied quickly but dropped just as fast as markets continue to hope for a more dovish Fed, but will this 2-way risk continue as evidence for a drop in earnings continues to accumulate? ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the  Market. I'm Mike Wilson, C ... Show More
3m 49s