Sea Change

In his latest memo – occasioned by massive changes he cites in just the 11 weeks since the last one – Howard Marks revisits the subject of AI, providing his observations on its essence and how it differs from previous technological innovations. He highlights AI’s immense power, s ... Show More

In his latest memo, Howard Marks addresses the much-asked question, “Is there a bubble in AI?” He identifies the uncertainty associated with AI investments and the conspicuous parallels to previous bubbles, while also acknowledging why those comparisons could be inappropriate. Gi ... Show More

In his latest memo, Howard Marks examines the recent string of well-publicized credit problems. He considers how they serve as a reminder that the yield premium offered by sub-investment grade credit isn’t a freebie, but rather compensation for bearing credit risk. While good tim ... Show More

Howard Marks (Co-Chairman) and Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit) discuss topics related to Howard’s latest memo, Further Thoughts on Sea Change, and Oaktree’s recently published Performing Credit Quarterly 3Q2023 in this crossover episode of The Insight: Conversations a ... Show More

There are a bunch of historical analogies that people like to reach for in order to describe some of the economic trends we're seeing today. There's obviously the period of high inflation in the 1970s and early 1980s, or the disruptions caused by the Spanish Flu pandemic around 1 ... Show More

Tendayi Kapfidze, chief economist at LendingTree, said in the Big Interview that he thinks the Fed may have overreacted to increased market volatility by signalling that it may put off further rate hikes. Now the market is reacting like they won't happen, which could lead to trou ... Show More

In the global financial system, US Treasuries play a special role. They’re basically as close to cash as a financial asset can get and their yields act as the "risk-free" rate against which all other assets are measured. In other words, the US Treasury market is supposed to be th ... Show More

While emerging markets suffered huge portfolio outflows at the beginning of the pandemic, the latest Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) shows capital flows have returned and the outlook continues to improve, partly because of low interest rates in countries such as the Unit ... Show More

<p>On today’s show we are taking yet another look at the macro economic environment. Virtually everything in the world of real estate investing is being dominated by the macro environment.  </p> <p>The Federal reserve increased the Fed funds rate another 25 basis points. They mad ... Show More

The Federal Reserve recently began shrinking its massive balance sheet, unwinding trillions of dollars worth of bond purchases that it started making during the depths effort to offset the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. It's not the first time that the Fed has undertaken 'quan ... Show More

<p>The market volatility of the past few months has been a boon for the trading divisions of many Wall Street banks, including Morgan Stanley. Laura Noonan, the FT’s US banking editor, explains how success in trading, and a focus on wealth management has positioned Morgan Stanley ... Show More

Scott Kimball, head of US fixed income at BMO Global Asset Management says investors need to recognize that the Federal Reserve is taking away emergency provisions, which should not threaten risk markets the way they feel threatened right now. With the Fed remaining cautious, Kim ... Show More