In his latest memo, Howard discusses how the recent events surrounding tariffs can have a seismic but unpredictable impact on the global economy. Seismic in that they reflect a fundamental undoing of longstanding norms, and unpredictable in that tariffs would bring untold second- and third-order consequences. He emphasizes that there is no foreknowledge here, with forecasts even less likely to be accurate than usual. Howard considers the response of the financial markets, highlighting the key question regards the appropriateness of the market reaction thus far: has it been just right, excessive, or inadequate?
You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/nobody-knows-yet-again).