India’s latest GDP estimate shows the economy growing at 7.8%. Rajeswari Sengupta, associate professor of economics at the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research is unconvinced. She tells Anirban Chowdhury why weak job creation, subdued investment, falling import volumes and an unresponsive stock market sit uneasily beside the headline number. She also explains why a low GDP deflator is economically logical, how double deflation is supposed to improve measurement, and why India’s new producer price indices raise questions. The government may have corrected important weaknesses in the earlier GDP series. But without detailed sources, methods and historical comparisons, Sengupta argues, economists cannot independently establish what changed—or whether the new number is credible.
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