On this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ breaks down Cumberland Farms’ IPO filing and the surprising business behind it.
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LINKS:
Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
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TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 Preview and Intro
2:57 Key metrics
4:28 Europe now out-earns America
5:01 $5.8B debt at 8x leverage
6:20 TLDR: snacks, gas, borrowed money
7:58 Fuel vs. inside: the gross profit photo finish
8:58 COCO, CONCO, and OTHER explained
10:57 Sponsors — Maximor | Brex | Anrok
14:02 Why scale matters: four reasons
16:02 The US convenience store market
17:42 EVs: long the birth rate
18:05 Back to the debt
19:10 The sale leaseback
20:24 Sponsors — RightRev | Pulley | Rillet
23:26 Does the deleveraging math work?
24:27 The growth thesis
25:06 600–700 stores become Cumberland Farms
26:16 The chicken fryer ROI
27:00 Coffee and loyalty: 6M members in 13 months
28:15 Red flag 1: five-for-five COSO failures
28:41 Red flag 2: entire C-suite is new
29:04 Red flag 3: lending to their own parent
29:42 Red flag 4: Big Tobacco funds loyalty
29:57 Red flag 5: foreign issuer, Cayman charter
30:10 Red flag 6: one supplier is 31% of costs
30:32 Red flag 7: balance sheet is stale
30:45 Cap table: TDR Capital and the Issa brothers
31:55 Casey's vs. ARCO
33:47 Goldman got bumped
34:08 Massachusetts banned the pump clip until 2015
34:57 No health insurance disclosure for 16K US workers
35:30 Robert Swan (ex-Intel CEO) is on the board
36:08 Credits