Despite very average economic performance, consumer sentiment remains at extraordinarily low levels. While there are many interesting aspects to this phenomenon, one is of particular relevance to investors. As we show on page 32 of the Guide to the Markets, peaks and troughs in consumer sentiment have, for many years, been powerful contra-indicators of stock ... Show More
Jun 22
The MOU and Warsh: A Changing Macro Landscape
Last week, as a frothy stock market continued to zigzag across a high plateau, two events occurred with significant implications for the macroeconomic outlook. First, the President signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, potentially bringing the Iran war to a close. Secon ... Show More
10m 31s
Jun 15
The Inflation Outlook and Fed Policy under New Leadership
Last Wednesday’s CPI report, while not a surprise, still showed a year-over-year inflation rate of 4.2% - higher than in any month since April, 2023. For investors, this raises a number of questions. First, is this the peak for U.S. inflation and, if it is, how fast will inflatio ... Show More
13m 4s
<p>– Unemployment falls, hard...</p> <p>– ... but inflation doesn't budge</p> <p>– Armaguard on the brink and the future of cash</p> <p>– What mergers and demergers can tell us (and what they can't)</p><p>See <a href="https://omnystudio.com/listener">omnystudio.com/listener</a> f ... Show More
