Last week, as a frothy stock market continued to zigzag across a high plateau, two events occurred with significant implications for the macroeconomic outlook. First, the President signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, potentially bringing the Iran war to a close. Second, Kevin Warsh presided over his first meeting as Fed Chairman, resulting in a s ... Show More
Jul 6
Consumer Sentiment and the Stock Market
Despite very average economic performance, consumer sentiment remains at extraordinarily low levels. While there are many interesting aspects to this phenomenon, one is of particular relevance to investors. As we show on page 32 of the Guide to the Markets, peaks and troughs in c ... Show More
12m 1s
Jun 15
The Inflation Outlook and Fed Policy under New Leadership
Last Wednesday’s CPI report, while not a surprise, still showed a year-over-year inflation rate of 4.2% - higher than in any month since April, 2023. For investors, this raises a number of questions. First, is this the peak for U.S. inflation and, if it is, how fast will inflatio ... Show More
13m 4s
<p>– Unemployment falls, hard...</p> <p>– ... but inflation doesn't budge</p> <p>– Armaguard on the brink and the future of cash</p> <p>– What mergers and demergers can tell us (and what they can't)</p><p>See <a href="https://omnystudio.com/listener">omnystudio.com/listener</a> f ... Show More
