The Rebasement Trade

In this episode, Alf and Brent talk about the Fed's likely reaction function to incoming data and the Bessent/Japan accord on the JPY. The duo then discusses one of the trickiest questions for macro PMs: when to use options, and how to size them? 

Alf and Brent discuss the significant market reaction to Warsh's press conference: the Fed handed over the keys to the bond market, and now Bond Vigilantes are in charge until data comes in to set the direction straight for everyone. How to handle such a market environment? 

Brent and Alf discuss the n-th injection of the Orange Variable in markets: Trump decided to escalate again with Iran, and even suggested the ceasefire might be over altogether. The duo discusses how to approach these injections of uncertainty, and what are the best trading and r ... Show More

U.S. President Donald Trump’s budget bill is likely to bake in outsized deficits for years to come. Host Carmel Crimmins talks to Reuters columnist Mike Dolan about what that means for U.S. debt levels and the wider economy. Plus, the anxiety stalking treasury markets. Sign up fo ... Show More

This week, we’ve looked at the budget reconciliation bill and its effects on student debt, taxes, health care and social programs. The bill is currently moving through the Senate. Today, we discuss the reconciliation bill and the national deficit. And we dig into other proposals ... Show More

The House is set to vote on whether to advance Biden’s massive $1.9 trillion social safety net bill. The vote comes after a key Congressional Budget Office analysis which found the bill would add billions of dollars to the deficit. Does speaker Pelosi have the votes to pass this ... Show More

There’s been a lot of talk about the ever-growing U.S. federal deficit lately. That discussion has largely revolved around spending cuts. But the flip side of the issue— that is, increasing revenue — is largely ignored. We’ll get into what increasing the government’s revenue coul ... Show More

Episode 175: Neal and Toby explain how the US budget deficit hit $1.7 trillion as Congress ends their fiscal year. Plus, the guys wrap up the biggest headlines of the weekend, including the fallout between Jon Stewart and Apple and Taylor Swift at the box office. Also, how one mu ... Show More

Concerns about the fiscal trajectory of the US are nothing new. But is this time different? And what could a fiscal crisis look like? Economist Kenneth Rogoff and historian Niall Ferguson discuss with Allison Nathan. This episode explores the latest Top of Mind report. This episo ... Show More