Despite a significant selloff following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, global emerging market equities have demonstrated a surprising degree of resilience. What explains this contained drawdown, and how should investors differentiate across regions even as volatility persists?
- (00:00) - Introduction
- (01:11) - Current resilience of emerging markets
- (01:59) - Earnings revisions and relative performance
- (03:18) - Market sensitivity and the nature of the drawdown
- (04:23) - Energy costs and financial conditions
- (06:16) - Monetary policy impact and US dollar outlook
- (07:00) - AI as a growth driver in emerging markets
- (07:30) - Outlook for EM equities
- (09:14) - Closing remarks and legal information
In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by Nenad Dinic, Emerging Market Strategist at Julius Baer, to examine the recent performance of emerging market equities in the wake of geopolitical shocks. They discuss why the fundamental story for the asset class remains robust, the importance of distinguishing between net energy importers and exporters, and how factors such as a weakening US dollar and the AI-driven CapEx cycle are shaping the outlook. The conversation also addresses the implications of regional dispersion, the role of earnings revisions, and why patient investors may find compelling opportunities amid ongoing uncertainty.
