Chuck Todd is joined by Punchbowl News co-founders Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer to unpack the turmoil gripping Capitol Hill in the Trump 2.0 era. With Congress ceding power and lawmakers increasingly preoccupied with their own reelection campaigns, the leadership is under fire as redistricting battles in states like California and Texas threaten to tip the House majority. Democrats’ gamble on independent redistricting may backfire, institutionalists in the GOP have all but vanished, and even the Senate is starting to resemble the fractious House of a decade ago. The conversation also dives into whether John Cornyn can outmaneuver Ken Paxton, how redistricting uncertainty could push members into statewide races, and the looming prospect of a government shutdown with healthcare concessions as Democrats’ strongest bargaining chip.
Beyond the legislative fights, the episode explores high-stakes questions over tariffs, the White House’s pressure campaign against releasing Epstein files, and GOP senators’ unwillingness to challenge RFK Jr. 's controversial moves at HHS. With potential Senate retirements on the horizon and California’s referendum putting Democrats in survival mode, Sherman and Palmer argue that members of Congress are increasingly acting less like lawmakers and more like elected pundits. As Punchbowl becomes the “local paper” of Capitol Hill, this episode maps the fault lines shaping both parties—and the country’s future.
Timeline:
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00:00 Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer join the Chuck ToddCast
02:00 Congress has ceded their power in Trump 2.0
03:45 After Labor Day, lawmakers worry about reelection campaign
04:45 Leadership is taking flak from members over redistricting
05:30 California or Texas redistricting could swing majority
06:15 Redistricting creating massive uncertainty for lawmakers
07:45 Democrats backed independent redistricting and it hurt them
08:30 Are there any institutionalists left in the GOP?
09:45 The Senate is starting to behave like the House 10 years ago
11:30 Redistricting could cause members to run for statewide office
13:30 Is John Cornyn playing for time to prove he can beat Ken Paxton?
14:45 Cornyn closing gap with Paxton, but still well behind
17:00 Democrats have no incentive to cut deal, avoid government shutdown
18:15 White House and Congress have different targets for CR
19:15 Hidden perils for Dems if they shut down government
21:00 Healthcare is the best concession Democrats can extract
22:45 If Democrats shut down the government, how do they get out of it?
23:45 Trump will make a shutdown painful for Democrats
24:30 Dems in the minority have never caused a shutdown
26:30 If Newsom loses the referendum, how will it affect congress?
28:00 Polling shows referendum barely above 50%
29:15 California’s system has been good to Republicans
30:45 If Newsom loses, the party goes into survival mode
33:30 If courts stop tariffs, would Congress vote authority to Trump?
35:30 House might capitulate on tariffs, the senate won’t
36:45 Any chance Schumer and Jeffries meet with Trump?
38:30 Trump likely has the votes to prevent Epstein release
40:00 Epstein files caused rules committee to freeze congress
41:15 White House is pressuring/whipping members against file release
43:15 Where are GOP senators on RFK Jr’s actions at HHS?
44:30 GOP senators are afraid to exercise any leverage
45:45 Is Russia/Putin the only line that would divide Republicans?
47:00 Will there be any more GOP senate retirements?
49:00 Plans for Punchbowl news?
51:30 Members of congress have become elected Trump pundits on TV
53:45 Punchbowl has become the local paper for capitol hill