On this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck unpacks the growing unease in the GOP over RFK Jr.’s influence and Florida’s decision to drop school vaccine mandates, raising the question of how the once-fringe anti-vax movement went mainstream. Drawing historical parallels to the prohibition era, he examines how framing the issue as “personal freedom” and missteps like the COVID mandate fueled a cultural backlash that could take decades to undo, threatening long-term public health. The conversation then shifts to politics, with Trump maneuvering to dominate the NYC mayoral race—pressuring rivals, exploiting ranked-choice voting debates, and turning contests in New York and California into referendums on his influence, just as Democrats look to tie special elections back to Trump himself.
Then, Chuck is joined by Punchbowl News co-founders Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer to unpack the turmoil gripping Capitol Hill in the Trump 2.0 era. With Congress ceding power and lawmakers increasingly preoccupied with their own reelection campaigns, the leadership is under fire as redistricting battles in states like California and Texas threaten to tip the House majority. Democrats’ gamble on independent redistricting may backfire, institutionalists in the GOP have all but vanished, and even the Senate is starting to resemble the fractious House of a decade ago. The conversation also dives into whether John Cornyn can outmaneuver Ken Paxton, how redistricting uncertainty could push members into statewide races, and the looming prospect of a government shutdown with healthcare concessions as Democrats’ strongest bargaining chip.
Beyond the legislative fights, the episode explores high-stakes questions over tariffs, the White House’s pressure campaign against releasing Epstein files, and GOP senators’ unwillingness to challenge RFK Jr. 's controversial moves at HHS. With potential Senate retirements on the horizon and California’s referendum putting Democrats in survival mode, Sherman and Palmer argue that members of Congress are increasingly acting less like lawmakers and more like elected pundits. As Punchbowl becomes the “local paper” of Capitol Hill, this episode maps the fault lines shaping both parties—and the country’s future.
Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Timeline:
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00:00 Introduction
02:30 Alarm over RFK growing in GOP congress, but don’t expect action
03:15 Florida dropping the vaccine mandate for kids in schools
06:30 How did the kooky anti-vax movement go mainstream?
07:00 Anti-vaxx movement has historical parallel in prohibition movement
08:30 Anti-alcohol movement seized on a particular moment in time
09:15 Anti-vaxx movement has been framed as a personal freedom issue
10:15 Biggest mistake by public health officials was the Covid vaccine mandate
11:30 Prohibition created crime & deaths from bootlegged alcohol
14:00 Officials know potential harm, and made the decision anyway
15:30 Older generation has memories of deaths from these diseases
16:45 It could take decades to reverse the damage to public health
18:30 Pro vaccine messaging needs to not be political
20:00 Trump trying to clear field in NYC mayoral to beat Mamdani
21:00 NYC voters should get ranked choice voting in general election
22:45 If Trump gets Adams to drop out, race will become all about Trump
24:00 NYC mayoral and CA redistricting could become Trump referendums
26:00 Democrats are making special elections all about Trump
29:15 Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer join the Chuck ToddCast
31:15 Congress has ceded their power in Trump 2.0
33:00 After Labor Day, lawmakers worry about reelection campaign
34:00 Leadership is taking flak from members over redistricting
34:45 California or Texas redistricting could swing majority
35:30 Redistricting creating massive uncertainty for lawmakers
37:00 Democrats backed independent redistricting and it hurt them
37:45 Are there any institutionalists left in the GOP?
39:00 The Senate is starting to behave like the House 10 years ago
40:45 Redistricting could cause members to run for statewide office
42:45 Is John Cornyn playing for time to prove he can beat Ken Paxton?
44:00 Cornyn closing gap with Paxton, but still well behind
46:15 Democrats have no incentive to cut deal, avoid government shutdown
47:30 White House and Congress have different targets for CR
48:30 Hidden perils for Dems if they shut down government
50:15 Healthcare is the best concession Democrats can extract
52:00 If Democrats shut down the government, how do they get out of it?
53:00 Trump will make a shutdown painful for Democrats
53:45 Dems in the minority have never caused a shutdown
55:45 If Newsom loses the referendum, how will it affect congress?
57:15 Polling shows referendum barely above 50%
58:30 California's system has been good to Republicans
59:30 If Newsom loses, the party goes into survival mode
1:02:45 If courts stop tariffs, would Congress vote authority to Trump?
1:04:45 House might capitulate on tariffs, the senate won't
1:06:00 Any chance Schumer and Jeffries meet with Trump?
1:07:45 Trump likely has the votes to prevent Epstein release
1:09:15 Epstein files caused rules committee to freeze congress
1:10:30 White House is pressuring/whipping members against file release
1:12:30 Where are GOP senators on RFK Jr's actions at HHS?
1:13:45 GOP senators are afraid to exercise any leverage
1:15:00 Is Russia/Putin the only line that would divide Republicans?
1:16:15 Will there be any more GOP senate retirements?
1:18:15 Plans for Punchbowl news?
1:20:45 Members of congress have become elected Trump pundits on TV
1:23:00 Punchbowl has become the local paper for capitol hill
1:25:00 Ask Chuck
1:25:30 Are Dems just living in "the world as it is" when it comes to redistricting?
1:31:15 Are Trump's attacks on mail-in voting an effort to contest 2026 results?
1:35:45 Is there a line where Democrats fighting will be the "wrong" move?
1:41:45 Why is Lisa Cook being targeted for mortgage fraud when Trump did it?
1:47:30 How long would it take the DNC to find viable candidates in light red districts?
1:51:00 Could Texas/CA gerrymander backfire and put more safe seats in play?