Chuck Todd digs into the looming threat of a government shutdown and the political gamesmanship behind it. He explores whether Democrats will force a showdown with Republicans, the risks and rewards of standing their ground, and how history shows the party that triggers a shutdown usually pays the price. With Trump giving Democrats little incentive to compromise and a restless base demanding a fight, Chuck explains why avoiding confrontation could hurt incumbents more than a shutdown itself. Plus, in the ToddCast Top 5, he breaks down the best Senate pickup opportunities for both Democrats and Republicans heading into the midterms.
Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Timeline:
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00:00 Introduction
02:15 Will the Democrats force a showdown over a government shutdown?
04:30 Can Democrats trust Republicans to spend appropriated money?
05:15 Trump has given Democrats no incentive to come to the table
06:15 GOP forced shutdown in 2013, paid a heavy political price
08:45 Usually the party that forces shutdown goes down in polls
10:45 Democrats would do well to get caught fighting
13:00 If Democrats roll over, a “burn the establishment” mood will follow
14:45 The Democratic base is angry, not fighting puts incumbents at risk
16:00 Gavin Newsom has been rewarded for fighting
18:00 Trump has written off catering to the middle
19:15 Shutdown is risky, but provides a message for the midterms
22:00 A government shutdown is more likely than not
23:15 ToddCast Top 5 - Best senate pickup opportunities for each party
24:30 Top 5 senate seats for Democrats to pick up
31:45 Democrats need to put more seats in play
32:30 Top 5 senate seats for Republicans to pick up
40:00 Ask Chuck
40:15 Book suggestions for 2000’s era politics?
47:00 Love for the DeMaurice Smith interview
48:45 Why isn't the public more up in arms over unilateral tariffs?