Markets Readying for a Rate Cut

Our Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research Seth Carpenter asks Mayank Phadke, a member of his team, to give up an update on tariffs and their real cost to the U.S. economy.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts ... Show More

Although the conflict in Iran keeps dominating the news cycle, investors have an eye on the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. Our Deputy Global Head of Research Michael Zezas and Head of Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore consider policy implications – from healthcare and con ... Show More

Back from the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, Simon Waever and Seth Carpenter unpack what policy makers and investors could be underpricing: the growth hit from higher energy costs, the risk of too much tightening by central banks and why emerging markets still look resilient. ... Show More

Les Nanberg of Cornerstone Wealth Management in Boston said he sees big slowdowns in economic activity around the world, including the United States, and ntoed that itnerest rate cuts will not do much to stem weakness, especially with a trade war making growth and recovery more d ... Show More

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February read 61.7, down from 67.2 in January, well short of a median estimate of 67, and the lowest print since October 2011 – even lower than April 2020, when the global economy was locked down. “To put it bluntly,” notes ... Show More

This week, we discuss Powell’s hawkish speech, how to think about trading tariffs and the weaponization of the US account deficit, and whether we should expect a significant growth slowdown. We also delve into rate cuts & the yield curve, why Bitcoin is the trade after the trade, ... Show More

In January of 2023, a time where extreme pessimism on stocks and the economy reigned, Sam Burns, founder of Mill Street Research, shared his bullish outlook on equities with Jack. Now that his prediction has come true, Sam returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he is much les ... Show More

Asian stock markets kicked off the week on a positive note, although the US indices had nothing more exciting than mixed performance after the announcement of strong jobs data on Friday. The US jobs data gave a small boost to the Dow and the S&P500 which closed Friday’s session 0 ... Show More

August saw strong gains in global equities, particularly in the Dow Jones, as well as indices in both China, and Japan. Gold has hit a four-month high nearing USD 3,500 per ounce this morning, driven by concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence and uncertainty around US ta ... Show More

Milton Berg, renowned market technician known to viewers for his contrarian bullish call in January of 2023, returns to Forward Guidance with a far less rosy outlook. As of recording on February 28, 2024, Berg is decidedly bearish in the face of a stupendous stock market rally. H ... Show More

Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist Gina Martin Adams discusses that while the cues from S&P 500 earnings generally support the outlook for stocks this year, the market's tolerance for risk is being ... Show More

This week, we discuss all the growing list of weaker labor market data after August NFP showed just 22K jobs added. We also debate whether the Fed will have room to cut 50bps in September while stagflation rears its head, the potential implications if tariffs are overturned, and ... Show More

The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 now control 39% of the entire index—an all-time high. Brad Barrett sits down with Brian Feroldi, ChooseFI's go-to stock market expert, to break down what 2024's 25% gain really means and whether investors should expect the same in 2025. Review ... Show More