The big things you need to know:
- The team tackles some of the top questions in consumer-related conversations today, including what their company and industry level interactions and data have been telling them about the current state of the consumer, whether the consumer has been retreating or simply shifting their spend, what's happening in different consumer cohorts, what they think the biggest challenges are for the consumer at the moment, and how their companies are managing around tariffs.
- Overall, the team comes to the conclusion that while many of the issues impacting the consumer aren't new, in the aggregate the current set of pressures feels different and conditions appear to have taken a turn for the worse. Nik notes that the tone at a recent industry event was the most downbeat of all of the year's he's been attending and highlights what he believes the incremental pressures are this year. Mike highlights how his proprietary pricing data was particularly weak in February and how weakness in housing has broadened regionally. Steve points out that many issues have been used to explain consumer weakness earlier this year (i.e. weather), but that the slowing that's been underway has persisted even with some of those things now in the rearview mirror.
- On policy, all three noted that their companies have provided very little in the way of guidance related to tariffs, which will likely lead to a tricky reporting season. The team explores whether the companies in their industry will be able to pass along tariff costs via pricing, collectively concluding that it may vary by industry and will be very difficult to do in certain verticals.