US Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled that former US Treasury Secretary Yellen’s debt issuance plan would continue, implying no increase in longer-dated Treasury bonds and lowering 10-year yields. This support is threatened by talk of a “DOGE dividend” to taxpayers. There is a considerable gulf between claimed government savings and economists’ view of real ... Show More
Today
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Inflation (data) is coming'
The US government has announced that, regardless of the government shutdown, the September consumer price inflation data will be coming out (probably late). This is legally required, to enable the cost of living calculation that raises social security payments—huge swathes of US ... Show More
2m 41s
Yesterday
Top of the Morning: US Financials - Sector update & outlook
We cover a range of sector-related topics, spanning concerns over subprime consumer credit and private credit, a preview of the upcoming Q3 earnings season for financials, sector positioning, and YTD performance across sub-sectors. Featured is Jeff Harwood, CIO Financials Analyst ... Show More
9m 10s
Sep 2023
Fiscal policy is the elephant in the room
Markets are basically on hold ahead of the US rate decision tomorrow. The oil rally, which has the potential to raise risks to inflation, has us on tenterhooks in a week dominated by central bank activity. Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why fiscal poli ... Show More
14m 16s
Jul 2024
How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI)
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
New paper published by Hudson Bay Capital, written by Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran, “ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Mone ... Show More
1h 16m
Feb 2025
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on DOGE, Taxes and the Fed
Nine days after his swearing in, Scott Bessent sat down with Big Take DC host Saleha Mohsin at the US Treasury Department. They discussed topics in his purview dominating the headlines — Elon Musk’s DOGE efforts, tariffs — and his plans for taxes, trade, the Fed and more.See omny ... Show More
22m 28s
Jul 2023
Late Cycle Bond Trades | Mark Cabana on Mild Recession Case and Treasury Market Supply
Mark Cabana, head of US Rates Strategy at BofA Global Research, joins Forward Guidance to share insights on today’s very strange bond market. Cabana, a former officer at the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, explains his bullish case for the 10-year U.S. Trea ... Show More
56m 14s