The Fed delivered a super-sized rate cut to the start of the cycle last week. More likely they go back to smaller 25bp moves if labour data remains resilient. But another large move is not out of the realm of possibility. We think the BoC is on course for 5 straight 25’s but they could front-load with a 50bp move in October or December if growth data shows a large undershoot vs potential. The BoE and ECB seem set to take things slow, but a larger cut is a non-zero chance.

Participants:

Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Super-Sized