episode-header-image

May 2024

37m 24s

A New Fed Put?

Alfonso Peccatiello & Brent Donnelly

About this episode

Descrizione: Nominal growth is showing some early signs of fatigue, while economists' expectations remain elevated and market pricing still quite hawkish. Alf and Brent discuss potential opportunities arising from this setup, and spend time arguing whether Powell just announced a new Fed Put this week.

Link to Brent's favorite podcast this week: https://pod.link/1594407589/episode/48072fb61a2a4cd1bf4fbbf9dff7e555

Up next

Run It Hot Hot Hot

Alf and Brent discuss the surprising Jackson Hole speech in which Powell opened up to interest rate cuts already in September. Markets are reacting strongly, but the real question is what should we expect if Trump runs the economy hot alongside a dovish Fed in 2026?

Is The Fed Ready To Capitulate Dovish?

Alf and Brent discuss the weak labor market data and the likely Fed reaction function. The duo also reflects on how you might be right on the macro idea, but market pricing at inception of your trade matters sometimes more than whether you were directionally right or wrong.

The Tariff Mismatch Theory

Alf and Brent discuss the sharp USD repricing and the market positioning for a mild tariff impact on the US economy - what if we get a surprising slowdown over the next few months instead?

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