Tom welcomes back Tony Greer from the Morning Navigator to delve into the various market trends and investment strategies. Greer, who is bullish on gold, S&P, industrial miners, and uranium, while bearish on bonds, shares his perspective on the current economic climate. He references the volatile year of 1994, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to combat inflation, and believes that if similar circumstances arise again, the Fed will respond with rate cuts, leading to a bullish stock market environment. The commodity sector, particularly natural resources and housing, has seen a significant shift from tech markets, which remain mixed or flat. Greer attributes this trend to potential geopolitical tensions and increasing ISM manufacturing figures, possibly pointing towards the early stages of a World War III scenario.
Greer discusses his bullish stance on gold due to central bank buying and physical demand. While some may view the recent gold rally as a head fake, he remains committed to the precious metal. He believes that declining total gold ETF holdings could indicate less speculation and increased interest in physical gold ownership. The speakers also touch upon the potential implications of increasing national debt on the US dollar and the possibility that fiat currencies, including the US dollar, will decline against gold. They ponder if the current trends in oil, copper, and other commodities represent a cyclical shift from underinvestment to materials necessary for economic growth.
Throughout their discussion, they emphasize the importance of staying informed about market changes and adjusting investment strategies accordingly. Greer suggests repositioning portfolios towards natural resources and industrial sectors, despite slower growth compared to tech stocks, as these markets may have more significant impacts with smaller amounts of capital. The conversation highlights potential long-term consequences of current economic trends, including national debt levels and the role of gold as a safe-haven asset.
Timestamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – Bullish Stocks & Gold
9:23 – Fed Games & Inflation
15:12 – Gold Rally & Disorder
17:15 – Gold Vs. Silver
18:12 – Metals & Frustration
20:30 – Capital Rotation
23:17 – Gold ETF Declines
24:42 – Metal Investing
26:20 – The WHO Quagmire
28:44 – Confidence in Media
30:18 – Exponential Debt
31:49 – Oil & Copper Cycles
33:52 – Peak Frustration
36:40 – Uranium Fundamentals
39:13 – Time to Pay Attention
42:30 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Guest Links:
Substack: https://tgmacro.substack.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/tgmacro
Website: https://tgmacro.com/
E-Mail: tony@tgmacro.com
After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, “I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years.”
We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets.
He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992.
In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department. Then returned to New York City early in 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs.
He managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
He started his first venture in 2000 – Machine Trading which happened right before the tech bubble burst. That decision was his first excruciating life lesson in market timing. It turned out to be an extremely valuable learning experience.
He believes there is a massive opportunity with both the unprecedented situation in global markets and in the way financial news is consumed. In 2016, he started TG Macro, LLC.