Bond yields are higher today than they were 20 years ago. With inflation indicators falling around the globe, the time of elevated cash rates may be drawn to a close.
Investors are moving back into bonds in record numbers, with 2023 global bond ETF inflows totaling $333 billion. Yet, as global central banks appear at or near the end of a tightening cycle designed to quell the most significant surge in inflation in decades, investors could be moving even more quickly back into fixed income.
Steve Laipply, Global co-head of iShares’ fixed income ETFs joins Oscar to help us understand what has been driving investors towards, or in some cases back, to the fixed income market and what investors should be looking for as central banks appear set to loosen their grip on interest rates.
Sources: ETF Flows Data: BlackRock Global Business Intelligence, as of December 31, 2023. Flows for fixed income ETFs globally totaled $265 billion in 2022, compared with $333 billion in 2023. Previous annual record was in 2021 with $282 billion; Mutual Fund Flows Data: Simfund for US MFs, Broadridge for Non-US Mutual Funds, both as of December 31, 2023. Closed end funds excluded throughout. Fixed Income Mutual Funds saw $711 billion in outflows in 2022, and $151 billion in inflows in 2023; Inflation Data: The World Bank as of Feb. 29, 2024. U.S. annual CPI for 2022 was 8.0%, compared with previous high of 13.5% in 1980. European Union CPI for 2022 was 8.8%, compared with previous high of 12.9% in 1980; Yield to Worst Data: Bloomberg, as at March, 25 2024. 3 Month US Treasury Bills at 5.38%; 10 Year US Treasury Yield at 4.25%; US High Yield (based on Markit iBoxx US Liquid High Yield Index) as at Jan. 2, 2023 was 8.7%.. and yield to worst as at Dec. 29, 2023 was 7.4%; Correlation Data: Bloomberg, as at March, 25 2024. Assessed 5 Year and 20 Year Correlation between 10 Year US Treasury Yield and S&P 500. 20 Year Correlation is 0.15%, and 5 Year Correlation is -0.03%. Based on monthly data points; Return Data: BlackRock, Bloomberg, as at March, 25 2024. High Yield references the Markit iBoxx US Liquid High Yield Index from Jan.1, 2023 to Dec. 31, 2023. Total Return = 12.89%;
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