If you do a quick google search on the phrase “tensions rising”, you get 230,000 hits. If you search the phrase “tensions falling” you get 3,700 hits. One of the cardinal rules of journalism is to only report on rising tensions and never improvement.
However, in recent weeks, there has been a quiet decline in tensions across a number of dimensions. This is b ... Show More
Nov 24
The Health of the Consumer
<p>I was watching a football game over the weekend and I saw a giant lineman go down. He was in obvious pain and hobbled, assisted and very slowly, to the sideline. The TV commentators, to my amazement, said he didn’t look too bad and he was probably healthy enough to return to t ... Show More
11m 46s
Nov 17
Why a 1:13 expansion feels like a 1:20 recession
<p>In our age of overwhelming technological progress, I still cling to the simpler practices of my youth. I read books rather than tablets, write with an ink pen in cursive rather than text with my thumbs, and attempt to use mental arithmetic, rather than a calculator, in solving ... Show More
11m 9s
Nov 3
The Importance of Navigation in the Dark
<p id="ember886" class="ember-view reader-text-block__paragraph">I was rewatching Apollo 13 over the weekend - a fabulous movie, by the way, if you’ve never seen it - about how, in 1970, three astronauts returned safely to Earth following an explosion on their spacecraft, two day ... Show More
11m 48s
Aug 2022
Strong US jobs data hammers the recession 'optimism'
Strong US jobs data revived the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks on Friday. The US 10-year yield jumped, and the US dollar gained. Gold gave back a part of gains, and US stocks closed in the negative, although the three major US indices closed the first week of August in the positive. ... Show More
10m 42s
May 2021
Inflation risks: 'too much complacency'?
<p>In this week’s episode of IG’s Trading the Markets podcast, IGTV’s Victoria Scholar speaks to Daniel Lacalle, chief economist at Tressis, about the post-pandemic recovery for the US economy, monetary and fiscal policy, and the potential economic risks ahead. </p>
<p>Lacalle s ... Show More
18m 56s
Apr 2023
The Case for a 22% Drop in S&P 500
Troy Gayeski, chief market strategist at FS Investments, says don’t wait until May to flee the stock market rally—get out now. He joined the What Goes Up podcast to explain why he’s expecting the S&P 500 to bottom out at around 3,200, a roughly 22% drop from current levels.
“Firs ... Show More
41m 35s
Oct 2022
U.K. Economy: All Eyes on the U.K.
<p>As the U.K. deals with a bout of market volatility, political transitions, and sticky inflation, how will policy makers and the Bank of England respond, and where might the U.K. economy be headed from here? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and U.K. Economist Bruna Sk ... Show More
8m 3s
<p>As price to earnings multiples fall and inflation continues to weigh on the economy, long term earnings estimates may still be too high as the risk of a recession rises.</p><p> </p><p>-----Transcript-----</p><p><br></p><p>Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson ... Show More
