On todays episode, Bob Elliott CIO at Unlimited Funds & Mike Green Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management join the show for a discussion on the late cycle slowdown coming throughout the end of 2023 & into 2024.We discuss the impact of passive investing & to what degree earnings really matter in todays modern market structure, the relative value in bonds vs stocks & what delinquencies could be signalling in terms of credit going forward. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:15) The Bond Market Sell-Off
(04:09) Is The Bond Market Pain Over?
(06:37) The Economy Remains Strong… For Now
(13:23) Fading The Soft Landing
(19:36) The Passive Investing Machine Keeps Churning
(26:19) Who Is The Marginal Buyer Of Bonds In 2023/24?
(30:49) We're In The Late Stages Of A Macro Cycle
(36:16) A Maturity Wall Is On The Horizon
(38:42) The Best Risk/Reward In Markets
(49:20) Bitcoin, Gold & Bond's During Geopolitical Conflict
(59:12) Recession & The Unemployment Rate
(01:02:48) Banks Are Less Important In The Credit Cycle Today
(01:15:51) Will The Fed Cut Rates In 2024?
(01:24:05) Seeking Alpha vs Beta
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.