Offices across the country are still sitting empty. The nationwide office vacancy rate reached a high of about 20% in the first quarter of 2023, according to JLL, and while big tech companies are pressuring workers to return to the office, the hybrid work model has led to an increase in commercial office delinquencies. According to Trepp, a real estate analytics firm, the office delinquency rate surged 125 basis points in May to over 4%.
This spells trouble for the commercial real estate market and the broader economy, according to some experts. Analysts at Morgan Stanley are predicting a decline in commercial property values of up to 40%, a crash akin to the 2008 financial crisis. Fred Cordova, CEO of Corion Enterprises, believes the crash is already underway. But while most firms agree the office sector is under stress, some are more optimistic than others about the outcome for commercial real estate. For example, UBS Global Wealth Management asserts the problem is manageable, and a crash resembling 2008 isn’t likely.
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