Across the economy, the outlook is for slower growth. Slower growth in demand, in employment, in profits and in inflation. Recession is by no means certain. However, a slow-growing economy is rather like a slow-moving bicycle – the slower its moves, the easier it is to topple it over. And so, in the spring of 2023, there is a significant risk of recessio ... Show More
May 4
Quarter Days and the Economic Outlook
In 19th century English novels, so-called “quarter days” often provided a chronological backdrop to the plot. A relic of medieval times, the quarter days were Lady Day (March 25th), Midsummer Day (June 24th), Michaelmas (September 29th) and Christmas Day (December 25th). These we ... Show More
14m 31s
Nov 2022
Amid Rising Inflation and Slowing Growth, How is the U.S. Consumer Faring?
As the holiday shopping season kicks off — against a backdrop of high inflation and slowing economic growth — will consumers continue to remain a bright spot in the U.S. economy? In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Research’s David Mericle, chief U. ... Show More
22m 45s
<p>As the Fed continues to increase their peak rate of interest, the path for a soft landing narrows, so what deflationary indicators need to show up in the real economy to take the pressure off of policy tightening?</p><p><br></p><p>----- Transcript -----</p><p><br></p><p>Welcom ... Show More
<p>Original Release on December 2nd, 2022: While 2022 saw the fastest pace of policy tightening on record, has the Fed’s hiking cycle properly set the U.S. economy up for a soft landing in 2023?</p><p><br></p><p>----- Transcript -----</p><p><br></p><p>Welcome to Thoughts on the M ... Show More
<p>While banking conditions seem to have stabilized for now, tighter credit conditions could still hit U.S. economic growth.</p><p><br></p><p>----- Transcript -----</p><p><br></p><p>Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Along ... Show More
