Dan McNamara, veteran commercial MBS trader and founder of Polpo Capital, joins Forward Guidance to argue that the commercial real estate (CRE) default cycle has only just begun. McNamara notes that the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank is causing regional banks to curb lending to commercial real estate projects, and that as a result many ... Show More
Today
Why the Oil Shock Could Trigger a Global Recession | Weekly Roundup
In this episode, we explore the fog of war in markets, where geopolitics and volatility scramble investors’ assumptions. Quinn and Felix break down the macro landscape, analyzing war narratives, energy shocks, and shifting expectations for growth, jobs, and Fed policy. We debate ... Show More
56m 6s
Mar 11
The Global Economy Is Splitting Into Spheres | Eric Wallerstein
Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, Eric Wallerstein, explores how shifting geopolitics, Trump-era monetary policy, and structural economic forces are reshaping global macro. We cover tariffs, the dollar, Iran-driven market shocks, Fed balance sheet strategy, and the futu ... Show More
58m 49s
Mar 6
Is The Iran Energy Shock About To Break Markets? | Weekly Roundup
This week, we explore how the Iran escalation is stress-testing a fragile, late-cycle financial system already stretched by years of easy liquidity. We examine oil volatility, energy chokepoints, bonds failing as safe havens, and the growing risk that geopolitics could trigger a ... Show More
1h 5m
Oct 2023
Mortgage Bonds Blow Up; Banks Feel Regulatory Heat
<p>The $8 trillion mortgage-bond market plunged to levels rarely seen since the global financial crisis as Treasury yields surged. To analyze why and what’s next, we’re joined by Christopher Maloney, mortgage strategist at BOK Financial Capital Markets, and Bloomberg News reporte ... Show More
37m 45s
Feb 2024
Will commercial real estate hurt regional banks?
<p>New York Community Bancorp shares fell 38% on Wednesday, partly on worries about the bank’s exposure to commercial real estate. Today on the show, Ethan Wu is joined by Robert Armstrong and FT property correspondent Joshua Oliver, who explain what’s going on with NYCB, and wha ... Show More
16m 46s
Apr 2023
What Commercial Real Estate Stress Means for Banks and Bond Funds
In the last month or so, two macro risks have become top of mind for investors. One is the stability of regional banks. The other is the weakness in the commercial real estate market. On some level, they're separate stories, but they're also linked, since regional banks tend to d ... Show More
47m 42s
Dec 2023
The Higher Stocks Rise the Harder They Fall with Jeff Toporek of FD Stonewater
On this episode of “On The Tape,” Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, and Liz Young give a preview of the week ahead, including the last Fed meeting of the year. Dan and Guy sit down with Jeff Toporek of FD Stonewater for a conversation about commercial real estate and interest rates.
Key In ... Show More
1h 2m
Dec 2023
Private Debt ‘Tourists’ May Do Bad Deals; Bank Outlook
New entrants to the rapidly-growing private credit market, scrambling to deploy capital as demand exceeds supply, risk making loans that don’t perform well, according to Alan Schrager, senior partner and portfolio manager at Oak Hill Advisors. “You sort of love private credit tou ... Show More
51m 56s
<p>As regional banks contend with sector volatility, commercial real estate could face challenges in securing new loans and refinancing debt when it matures.</p><p><br></p><p>----- Transcript -----</p><p><br></p><p>Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan ... Show More
