Dan McNamara, veteran commercial MBS trader and founder of Polpo Capital, joins Forward Guidance to argue that the commercial real estate (CRE) default cycle has only just begun. McNamara notes that the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank is causing regional banks to curb lending to commercial real estate projects, and that as a result many ... Show More
Apr 24
The Fed Is Irrelevant While CapEx Runs The Economy | Weekly Roundup
Markets feel stable on the surface, but conflicting forces are building around Fed uncertainty, AI-driven growth, and structural imbalances that may not coexist for long. This week, we break down break down the Warsh hearing and concerns over Fed credibility to a potential re-ind ... Show More
1h 3m
Apr 22
Markets Are Misreading A Late Cycle Liquidity Crunch | Michael Howell
Liquidity may be sending a very different signal than most investors think, challenging the dominant narrative around growth, rates, and risk. We sit down with Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, a leading voice on global liquidity, to unpack where we are in the cycle and why ... Show More
58m 49s
Apr 16
Market Structure is Fueling an Inflation Trap | Weekly Roundup
Markets are ripping higher, but something underneath feels increasingly disconnected from reality. This week, we break down the growing dominance of flows, derivatives, and policy over fundamentals, and what that means for how markets actually move. We explore extreme positioning ... Show More
37m 18s
Oct 2023
Mortgage Bonds Blow Up; Banks Feel Regulatory Heat
<p>The $8 trillion mortgage-bond market plunged to levels rarely seen since the global financial crisis as Treasury yields surged. To analyze why and what’s next, we’re joined by Christopher Maloney, mortgage strategist at BOK Financial Capital Markets, and Bloomberg News reporte ... Show More
37m 45s
Feb 2024
Will commercial real estate hurt regional banks?
<p>New York Community Bancorp shares fell 38% on Wednesday, partly on worries about the bank’s exposure to commercial real estate. Today on the show, Ethan Wu is joined by Robert Armstrong and FT property correspondent Joshua Oliver, who explain what’s going on with NYCB, and wha ... Show More
16m 46s
Apr 2023
What Commercial Real Estate Stress Means for Banks and Bond Funds
In the last month or so, two macro risks have become top of mind for investors. One is the stability of regional banks. The other is the weakness in the commercial real estate market. On some level, they're separate stories, but they're also linked, since regional banks tend to d ... Show More
47m 42s
Dec 2023
The Higher Stocks Rise the Harder They Fall with Jeff Toporek of FD Stonewater
On this episode of “On The Tape,” Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, and Liz Young give a preview of the week ahead, including the last Fed meeting of the year. Dan and Guy sit down with Jeff Toporek of FD Stonewater for a conversation about commercial real estate and interest rates.
Key In ... Show More
1h 2m
Dec 2023
Private Debt ‘Tourists’ May Do Bad Deals; Bank Outlook
New entrants to the rapidly-growing private credit market, scrambling to deploy capital as demand exceeds supply, risk making loans that don’t perform well, according to Alan Schrager, senior partner and portfolio manager at Oak Hill Advisors. “You sort of love private credit tou ... Show More
51m 56s
<p>As regional banks contend with sector volatility, commercial real estate could face challenges in securing new loans and refinancing debt when it matures.</p><p><br></p><p>----- Transcript -----</p><p><br></p><p>Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan ... Show More
