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SotN#24: TRIUMPHANT! w/ @nic__carter (2017 vs 2020 Bull Markets, What's Different this Time?)
Nic Carter, general partner at Castle Island Ventures, cofounder of Coin Metrics, host the On The Brink
Nic recently put out a medium article with 9 different Bitcoin charts showing metrics at ATHs.
https://medium.com/@nic__carter/nine-bitcoin-charts-already-at-all-time-highs-78abbfe82804
We ask Nic:
- What about this bull market is different than last time?
- What are the differences that stand out to you the most, that are going to characterize the nature of this specific bullish period?
Metrics discussed:
- Addresses with $10 of BTC or more
- Open Interest on CME Futures
- Realized Cap
- Bitcoin Options Open Interest
- BTC priced in Turkish Lira
- BTC held by Grayscale
- Stablecoin Free-Float
- Silvergate’s Settlement Network
- Growth of Crypto-Native Credit
Watch the video to hear the discussion!
In the SECOND HALF of the video, David and Ryan turn their attention to ETHEREUM:
Will Ethereum Capture the Bull Market?
Topics we discussed:
Ethereum and the Bull Market
- The Deposit Contract received the required amount of ETH to start off ETH2 on the earliest possible date.
- Then, it received A TON more of ETH after that.
The 2017 ETH Bull market was underpinned by the possibility of ETH staking and Ethereum scaling just being around the corner
The 2020 ETH Bull market has all of these same dynamics, but AHEAD of the bull market, rather than behind it.
‘Will Staking ever come?’ and ‘Will Ethereum ever scale?’ are NOT questions that are going to be asked this bull run.
Also new this bull run: DeFi!
DeFi👏makes👏capital👏sticky!👏
The capital that entered the 2017 ICO mania was FLEETING. Ethereum was 95% ICOs, and after ICOs stopped making people money, there was no reason for capital to stay put on Ethereum
Things that didn’t exist in 2017:
Collateralized money markets
- Maker - $2.75B
- Compound - $1.7B
- Aave - $1.45B
AMMs
- Uniswap $1.3B
- Balancer $0.4B
Others
- Yearn - $0.5B
- Synthetix - $0.8B
- Nexus - $0.1B
Stablecoin Supply
- $20B in stablecoin market cap on Ethereum.
PLUS, Alpha is found on Ethereum
- There’s a lot of cognitive dissonance in the world about buying Bitcoin. People have heard about Bitcoin multiple times now, and if they still don’t yet own BTC, they may have a level of cognitive dissonance about buying BTC at ATH prices.
- People wanting exposure, but not specifically wanting to buy BTC, is a significant reason as to why other assets always do so well in a bull market
People want alpha
- This cycle, DeFi tokens on Ethereum will capture outsized exposure to people who are trying to outperform BTC
- Last cycle, it was many different PoW chains and Ethereum L1 competitors, this cycle it will be protocols and projects on Ethereum
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