logo
episode-header-image
Aug 2022
8m 58s

Is opinion polling broken?

Bbc Radio 4
About this episode

The opinion polling industry’s reputation has taken a battering in recent years, as high profile slip-ups in the US presidential election exposed frailties. So should we write them off? Not according to Economist data journalist G Elliot Morris, who’s written a book called Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar

Up next
Today
Trump fact-check: Do the US and Venezuela have 60% of the world’s oil?
US president Donald Trump has claimed in a speech to the UN that the US and Venezuela combined now have 60% of the world’s oil. 100% of the team on More or Less were confused.What measurement was the president using to get to this figure? Barrels of oil produced a day? Reserves o ... Show More
9m 1s
Sep 23
Has the UK’s productivity puzzle been solved?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:42) Frustrated economists have been left rending their garments and howling in the streets after the UK’s ‘productivity puzzle’ - a decade-long head-scratching, soul-searching conundrum - disappeared with a c ... Show More
29m 4s
Sep 19
Are carrots becoming less nutritious?
Are fruit and vegetables less nutritious than they used to be? And is declining soil quality to blame? Loyal listener Sarah got in touch to ask us to investigate an interesting quote from Dr Karan Rajan in a BBC news story. “We know our soil is not as nutrient dense as it was dec ... Show More
8m 58s
Recommended Episodes
Apr 2017
Opinion Polls for Presidential Elections
Recently, we've seen opinion polls come under some skepticism.  But is that skepticism truly justified?  The recent Brexit referendum and US 2016 Presidential Election are examples where some claims the polls "got it wrong".  This episode explores this idea. 
52m 59s
Nov 2020
About Those Polls…
<p>Nate Cohn, an expert on polling for The New York Times, knows that the predictions for the 2016 presidential election were bad.</p><p>But this year, he says, they were even worse.</p><p>So, what happened?</p><p>Nate talks us through a few of his theories and considers whether, ... Show More
33m 47s
Oct 2024
How to make sense of political polls
<p><span style="background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">As Election Day looms, we’re seeing more and more headlines based on poll results. Some declare Trump and Harris </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/19/polling-harris-trump-pennsylvan ... Show More
27m 33s
Oct 2022
AMERICA HAS A (POLLING) PROBLEM
Pollsters are starting to panic. There’s headline after headline after headline ahead of the midterms on whether this election cycle’s polling is accurate or not. How does polling actually work? Is it really representative of how voters are feeling and what the outcome will be on ... Show More
54m 36s
Nov 2020
What’s wrong with polling?
<div>Campaign strategists and the public were led to believe that Democrats were headed for a wave. Election results have told a different story, just as they did four years ago. And, the next steps for a promising coronavirus vaccine.</div><div><br></div><div>Read more:</div><di ... Show More
20m 46s
Jun 2024
What Polls Do (And Don’t) Tell Us
How will the trial of Donald Trump affect voters? There’s been a lot of partisan messaging from all sides about the numbers and what – if any effect – that’s going to have in November. How do we make sense of all of this? CNN polling and analytics editor Ariel Edwards-Levy joins ... Show More
28m 26s
Nov 2016
Why Did The Polls Get it Wrong (Or Did They)?
Hillary Clinton lost the US election despite some polls putting her chances of winning at 99%.In the run up to the vote pollsters spent huge sums of money speaking to thousands of Americans. They were careful to collect the best possible data from representative samples, and they ... Show More
22m 58s
May 2023
Changing the Guard? Turkey’s inconclusive election
<p>Despite the opposition’s lead in the pre-election polls, the incumbent president seems to have performed better than expected. What does a <a href="https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/05/14/recep-tayyip-erdogan-leads-his-challenger-as-turkey-votes?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_mediu ... Show More
24m 49s