logo
episode-header-image
Aug 2022
8m 58s

Is opinion polling broken?

Bbc Radio 4
About this episode

The opinion polling industry’s reputation has taken a battering in recent years, as high profile slip-ups in the US presidential election exposed frailties. So should we write them off? Not according to Economist data journalist G Elliot Morris, who’s written a book called Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar

Up next
Nov 22
Is there a stock market crash coming?
<p>For months, the share prices of tech companies have marched seemingly-ever upward, driven by fevered excitement about the potential of Artificial Intelligence. But many are now voicing fears that this surge might turn out to be a bubble, which could burst with damaging effects ... Show More
8m 58s
Nov 15
Has there been a $50 trillion wealth transfer to the richest Americans?
<p>Bernie Sanders says a vast amount of wealth - $50 trillion - has moved from 90% of the population to the wealthiest Americans since the 1970s. The figure comes from a study by Carter Price, a senior mathematician at nonprofit research institute the RAND Corporation.</p><p>Tim ... Show More
8m 58s
Nov 8
Is RFK Jr right about China's diabetes rate?
The US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr is on a mission to make America healthy again. One of his health-promotion ideas is to reduce chronic illness, specifically diabetes. And has part of his campaign he said that: "a typical pediatrician would see one case of diabetes in ... Show More
8m 56s
Recommended Episodes
Oct 2022
AMERICA HAS A (POLLING) PROBLEM
Pollsters are starting to panic. There’s headline after headline after headline ahead of the midterms on whether this election cycle’s polling is accurate or not. How does polling actually work? Is it really representative of how voters are feeling and what the outcome will be on ... Show More
54m 36s
May 2024
Swamp Notes: Can you trust the polls?
<p>American voters still say the economy is their most important electoral issue, and a growing number are less than pleased with Joe Biden’s economic management. The FT’s deputy Washington bureau chief, Lauren Fedor, and the vice-president of North Star Opinion Research, Jon McH ... Show More
14m 11s
Jul 2020
Should Joe Biden stay in the basement?
The presidential opposition candidate Joe Biden has barely emerged from his home since America’s lockdown at the end of March. But polls suggest that the low-key strategy is working in his favour – as his rival President Donald Trump comes under increasing pressure over his handl ... Show More
23m 5s
May 2024
Elections fallout: What does it mean for the general election?
Labour are celebrating big wins in the Blackpool South by-election, in the local elections and in most of the mayoral races that have declared so far.     The Conservatives could lose up to 500 councillors, though their candidate Ben Houchen did hold on to his role as mayor of Te ... Show More
24m 23s
Nov 2023
Are Democrats Whistling Past the Graveyard?
<p>A New York Times and Siena College poll released Nov. 5 showed Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in five of the six key swing states, with a notable jump in support among nonwhite and young voters. In response, Democrats freaked out.</p><p>But then two days later, voters across t ... Show More
1h 5m
Feb 2024
Who still votes Conservative?
<p>The Conservatives are languishing in the polls, while Labour is riding high – but beneath the headline figures, how does the voter appeal of the main parties break down by sex, age and other factors? The FT’s Lucy Fisher is joined by Political Fix regulars Stephen Bush and Mir ... Show More
36m 42s
Jun 2024
Poll suggests record Tory slump - what could change in two weeks?
Sky News has partnered with YouGov for the general election campaign and today the second of their three MRP polling projections is out.    It makes for very bleak reading for the Conservatives, suggesting they have not made any gains during the campaign and could slump to histor ... Show More
20m 31s
Nov 2023
Trump’s Poll Position
<p>As votes from Election Day 2023 were tallied up this week, wins for Democrats may have given a preview into next year’s presidential election. But new polls seem to point towards a rocky road to re-election for President Joe Biden. </p><p>It’s not all good news for Trump, thou ... Show More
34m 9s