Opinion Polls for Presidential Elections

Kyle reveals the next season's topic will be "Recommender Systems". Asaf shares insights on how network science contributes to the recommender system field. 

Kyle and Asaf discuss a project in which we link former guests of the podcast based on their co-authorship of academic papers. 

In this episode, Professor Pål Grønås Drange from the University of Bergen, introduces the field of Parameterized Complexity - a powerful framework for tackling hard computational problems by focusing on specific structural aspects of the input. This framework allows researchers ... Show More

Pollsters’ survey predictions after the second round of voting in France’s parliamentary elections suggest that a hastily formed leftist alliance has won the most seats. 

The days before an election always bring uncertainty, but that’s especially true this year, with polls showing a near deadlock between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. This week, Republican pollster and CNN Political Commentator Kristen Soltis Ander ... Show More

New polling has found that Keir Starmer is now less popular amongst British voters than Donald Trump.Today, we’re talking about Keir Starmer’s first year in government and the rapid decline in his personal popularity. From a triumphant election victory to sliding approval ratings ... Show More

The general election has begun in earnest and in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses how the country is feeling about it with a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” What percentage of Americans think the country is on the right track? Or that their pr ... Show More

Just days before Americans cast their final ballots, former President Trump and Vice President Harris are spending the weekend making their final case to swing state voters nationwide. The consensus among pundits and pollsters is that the race is neck-and-neck, but are they missi ... Show More

There’s only a week to go, and polls are showing that the gap between the two major parties is widening in favour of Anthony Albanese – but with such a high number of soft voters, can we count the Coalition out? 

Today’s episode is about the question of the moment in politics: the meaning of Joe Biden’s terrible polling numbers. Today’s guest is Nate Cohn, chief political analyst at the New York Times, where he does public opinion, polling, demographics, and politics. We talk about the no ... Show More

While national polls continue to forecast a virtual tie in the US presidential race, a new one in Iowa showing Harris leading Trump by three points in that ruby-red state has raised the question of whether pollsters have been missing a critical voting bloc that could determine th ... Show More

This week is all about predictions, polling and risk taking - what do current polls tell us about who might win the 2024 presidential race? We get a behind the scenes look at how statisticians make their predictions, and how accurate they are. Our guest Nate Silver developed a fo ... Show More