Opinion Polls for Presidential Elections

In this episode, Professor Pål Grønås Drange from the University of Bergen, introduces the field of Parameterized Complexity - a powerful framework for tackling hard computational problems by focusing on specific structural aspects of the input. This framework allows researchers ... Show More

In this episode, we learn why simply analyzing the structure of a network is not enough, and how the dynamics - the actual mechanisms of interaction between components - can drastically change how information or influence spreads. Our guest, Professor Baruch Barzel of Bar-Ilan Un ... Show More

In this episode we'll discuss how to use Github data as a network to extract insights about teamwork. Our guest, Gabriel Ramirez, manager of the notifications team at GitHub, will show how to apply network analysis to better understand and improve collaboration within his enginee ... Show More

Pollsters’ survey predictions after the second round of voting in France’s parliamentary elections suggest that a hastily formed leftist alliance has won the most seats. 

The days before an election always bring uncertainty, but that’s especially true this year, with polls showing a near deadlock between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. This week, Republican pollster and CNN Political Commentator Kristen Soltis Ander ... Show More

The general election has begun in earnest and in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses how the country is feeling about it with a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” What percentage of Americans think the country is on the right track? Or that their pr ... Show More

Just days before Americans cast their final ballots, former President Trump and Vice President Harris are spending the weekend making their final case to swing state voters nationwide. The consensus among pundits and pollsters is that the race is neck-and-neck, but are they missi ... Show More

There’s only a week to go, and polls are showing that the gap between the two major parties is widening in favour of Anthony Albanese – but with such a high number of soft voters, can we count the Coalition out? 

Today’s episode is about the question of the moment in politics: the meaning of Joe Biden’s terrible polling numbers. Today’s guest is Nate Cohn, chief political analyst at the New York Times, where he does public opinion, polling, demographics, and politics. We talk about the no ... Show More

While national polls continue to forecast a virtual tie in the US presidential race, a new one in Iowa showing Harris leading Trump by three points in that ruby-red state has raised the question of whether pollsters have been missing a critical voting bloc that could determine th ... Show More

This week is all about predictions, polling and risk taking - what do current polls tell us about who might win the 2024 presidential race? We get a behind the scenes look at how statisticians make their predictions, and how accurate they are. Our guest Nate Silver developed a fo ... Show More

Last week, John Kelly, former President Donald Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff, said Trump fit the definition of a “fascist.” Democrats have seized on the comment, using it to underline Trump’s anti-democratic tendencies in these final days before Election Day. On this ins ... Show More