While the possibility of a yield curve inversion in the U.S. has news outlets and investors wondering if a recession is on the way, there’s more to the story that should put minds at ease.
Jan 2024
Campbell Harvey, Inventor of Inverted Yield Curve Recession Signal, On The Bond Market, The U.S. Economy, And Federal Reserve Policy
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG,.
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So many market participants now regard an inverted yield curve as a harbinger of a recession, due to the indicator’s perfect track record of pre ... Show More
56m 36s
Jul 2023
Late Cycle Bond Trades | Mark Cabana on Mild Recession Case and Treasury Market Supply
Mark Cabana, head of US Rates Strategy at BofA Global Research, joins Forward Guidance to share insights on today’s very strange bond market. Cabana, a former officer at the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, explains his bullish case for the 10-year U.S. Trea ... Show More
56m 14s
Aug 2023
Edward Yardeni: Rolling recessions, yes, but also 'rolling recoveries'
Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, says it is possible that long-term recession predictors like the inverted yield curve and leading indicators may not be right this time, but mostly because the economy has been going through a series o ... Show More
58m 35s
Mar 2022
BREAKDOWN: The Market Indicator Flashing ‘Recession’
Why the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted and what it means.
This episode is sponsored by Nexo.io, Arculus and FTX US.
Since 1955, every U.S. recession has been preceded by the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, meaning that short-dated notes had higher yields than lo ... Show More
17m 14s
Feb 2023
DWS' Staples on Yield Curve: Macro Matters
Interest rates could remain higher than the previous few cycles, with an upward sloping yield curve by the end of 2024, Gregory Staples, DWS Investment Management’s head of fixed income in North America, says on this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus Podcast.
In thi ... Show More
26m 37s