logo
episode-header-image
Apr 2022
31m 39s

Summers Predicts U.S. Recession More Lik...

bloomberg
About this episode

Last year, Larry Summers famously shot down one of the Federal Reserve's favorite buzzwords, "transitory." This year, he's taking aim at "soft landing."

The Harvard University professor, former Treasury secretary and paid Bloomberg contributor says a combination of high inflation and low unemployment historically has spawned a recession. So, he's skeptical that the Fed can chart a path that will see the country out of its inflationary funk without causing an economic downturn. Once again, Summers is more pessimistic than his peers, with economists pegging the chance of recession in the next year at just 27.5% in a recent Bloomberg survey.

This week, Summers shares his thoughts on why the Fed needs to be more willing to acknowledge what he calls its monetary policy failures. He also comments on why he thinks some recent Biden administration moves to ease prices increases will be ineffectual, and about why he thinks Americans need to sacrifice more in order to punish Russia for the "worst threat in 75 years of naked aggression."

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Up next
Oct 8
Why This US Government Shutdown Is Different
This week’s episode of Trumponomics explores why the current US government shutdown may be different from previous iterations, why it may last longer than most and how it could end up triggering a recession. With the shutdown in its second week, host Stephanie Flanders, head of g ... Show More
25m 31s
Oct 1
Managing the News in the Age of Trump
This week, we're widening the lens a bit with a panel from the Bloomberg event "Women, Money and Power." Host Stephanie Flanders spoke with Alessandra Galloni, editor in chief of Reuters, and Zanny Minton Beddoes, editor in chief of The Economist, about how their news agencies ar ... Show More
23m 5s
Sep 24
Who Loses—and Maybe Wins—From Trump’s New H-1B Fee
On this episode of Trumponomics, host Stephanie Flanders explores US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a $100,000 fee on new H-1B visa applications, which industries will lose the most from this new expense for foreign workers and a potential long-term silver lining for ... Show More
24m 4s
Recommended Episodes
Oct 2023
The Fed's Tom Barkin On the Impact of Higher Interest Rates
The US economy has so far withstood the effects of higher interest rates a lot better than expected. Unemployment is still at historic lows, even while inflation has cooled and the Federal Reserve has hiked rates for about 18 months. That's not how things are supposed to work acc ... Show More
43m 43s
Sep 2022
U.S. Economy: The Fed Continues to Fight Inflation
After another Fed meeting and another historically high rate hike, it’s clear that the Fed is committed to fighting inflation, but how and when will the real economy see the effects? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter discuss. --- ... Show More
7m 37s
Sep 2023
Andrew Sheets: GDP, Inflation and a Possible Government Shutdown
Corporate credit is likely to continue outperforming, even if downward revisions to GDP, sticky inflation data and a potential government shutdown could mean a less restrictive approach from the Fed. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Glob ... Show More
3m 9s
Jul 2023
Vanguard's Hard Pass on a `Soft Landing'
A rallying stock market and better-than-expected second-quarter economic growth are just the latest developments pointing Wall Street skeptics to the possibility of a US “soft landing.” That’s where the Federal Reserve gets inflation back down to around 2% without triggering a do ... Show More
38m 37s
Mar 2022
Andrew Sheets: The Fed has More Work to Do
The U.S. Federal Reserve recently enacted its first interest rate hike in two years, but there is still more work to be done to counteract rising inflation and markets are watching closely. -----Transcript----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross Ass ... Show More
3m 19s
Jun 2024
Lots More With Neil Dutta on a Looming Fed Policy Error
Neil Dutta, the top economist over at Renaissance Macro, has generally been sunny and optimistic about the economy over the last four years or so. But now he's warning of a possible mistake by the Federal Reserve. In his view, the central bank is waiting too long to get confirmat ... Show More
24m 4s
Mar 2022
Mike Wilson: Will Slowing Growth Alter the Fed’s Path?
This week the market turns to the Federal Reserve as it eyes challenges to growth while remaining committed to combating high inflation with its first rate hike of the tightening cycle. -----Transcript----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Offi ... Show More
3m 39s
Apr 2019
Surveillance: I Don't Think Inflation Is Dead, Hatzius Says
Jose Rasco, HSBC Chief Investment Strategist at HSBC Private Bank Americas, expects the Fed to remain on hold this year. Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist & Head of Global Economics and Markets Research, doesn't think inflation is dead. Dan Tannebaum, PwC United States P ... Show More
18m 25s
May 2023
Andrew Sheets: Unresolved Questions Create Market Uncertainty
Optimistic investors have pushed stocks and bond yields to the high end of the recent range. But inflation, banks and the debt ceiling status are still raising questions that have gone unanswered. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief C ... Show More
3m 12s