US fertilizer supply and production dyna...

RaboResearch's Farm Inputs Analyst Sam Taylor discusses the ever-complex topic of US fertilizer supplies and production with CRU Group's Head of Market Intelligence, Chris Lawson. As farm profitability is reaching historic lows and inputs remain high, a great amount of attention has been placed on fertilizer's role in farm economics. With growing political pressures to increase self-sufficiency, a number of other barriers remain constant in the ability to significantly increase domestic production of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potash.

In recent news, the Trump administration has announced efforts to drastically increase capabilities and support, aiming to lessen the demand for fertilizer imports by accelerating domestic capacity. At the same time, multiple input companies and other sources would suggest curtailment in domestic production is the short-term reality. Efforts to boost US fertilizer supply may have no choice but to rely on imports. However, opportunities exist with the right partners – namely the US' neighbors to the north and south.

Chris Lawson serves as Head of Market Intelligence at CRU Group, providing pricing and consultancy guidance for the organization. With his Australian farming background, Chris is well-rooted in agriculture and understands the sector's cross-value chain needs.

Time stamps:

• 1:38 – Introducing Chris Lawson, CRU Group
• 2:30 – Can the US realistically boost fertilizer production over the next two to three years?
• 4:10 – Why nitrogen is the best opportunity for the US to reduce its trade deficit on fertilizers
• 11:52 – Phosphates: production curtailment in the short-term, but what about long-term production in the US?
• 18:05 – Exploring raw materials outside of the US and potential alternatives for traditional mining sources
• 22:10 – Can strategic reserves offset the highs and lows of production and cost cycles?
• 24:50 – Strategic partnerships and trade are a necessary requirement to ensure input availability moving forward, particularly with potash
• 25:50 – North American solutions vs. exclusively US production and supply
• 28:00 – Wrap-up and conclusion

If you have any questions you would like for us to consider in our discussion, please send them to eric.gibson@raboag.com.