3a:T469,

The Iowa Caucuses are back! Trump is the clear favorite, but there’s a tense battle for second place that is all going to play out on Monday. We dive into what the caucuses even are, how they work, and what their role is in this year’s presidential election.

Then, Crooked’s very own Tommy Vietor joins the show after being on the ground in Iowa himself. He walks us through what it was like sneaking into Republican campaign events, and what voters said.

Show Notes:

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3b:T522,For the past few months, The Run-Up has been reporting on political insiders and the work they’ve quietly been doing to shape the 2024 presidential election.What we’ve found is a group of people — Republicans and Democrats — all operating under the premise that this race will revolve around former President Donald Trump. That his nomination — and thus a rematch between Trump and President Biden — is almost inevitable.But if anything is going to blow up that assumption, it’s probably going to start in Iowa.As the first state in the Republican primary process, Iowa plays a key role in narrowing the field. If Trump wins there, it may effectively mean that he has secured the nomination.However, there’s a group of voters that holds disproportionate power in the state and in American culture more broadly. These voters were once part of Trump’s coalition — and they are now wavering.If they go another way, the whole race could open up.In our final episode of the season, The Run-Up goes to Iowa and inside the evangelical church. We speak with Bob Vander Plaats, an evangelical activist with a history of picking Iowa’s winners. And we go to Eternity Church, where Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida recently spoke, and talk to Jesse Newman, the pastor, and other members of the congregation.3c:T505,The latest national poll from The New York Times and Siena College shows former President Donald J. Trump leading President Biden by nine percentage points among registered voters — a pretty big shift in his direction in the week since the presidential debate.It has become clear in the past week that there is no obvious path to replacing Mr. Biden as the Democratic Party’s nominee. But there is a strong desire among Americans for something different.We heard that directly from voters we met last week in Kenosha, Wis., at a gathering of a group called Braver Angels. It’s a nonpartisan organization that finds common ground across political divisions, and it proved a perfect focus group after the debate.We asked these deeply engaged citizens, who had chosen to spend their free time debating policy and politics, how they were feeling about their options for president in November.Their perspective reinforced the gap that this unique political moment has exposed between voters and party leaders.The questions are: Has Mr. Biden’s debate performance made the continuation of his campaign untenable? And what, if anything, should happen next?Do you have a question about the 2024 election? We want to hear from you. Fill out this form or email us at therunup@nytimes.com

The Field: Iowa’s Electability Complex