Q4 can create some of the biggest opportunities of the year, but more traffic, deeper discounts, and bigger budgets do not automatically mean more profit.
For episode 300, Smart Marketer CMO John Grimshaw and Smart Marketer Agency CEO Pep Hufen break down what ecommerce brands should be thinking about as they plan their holiday strategy.
John shares lessons pulled from Black Friday 2025 performance across Smart Marketer Agency clients, including when different customers actually buy, why deeper discounts can hurt more than help, how gifting can increase perceived value without giving away margin, and why your holiday sales page may not be the best destination for cold traffic.
Then Pep takes it into paid media and planning, covering how to set monthly targets, when higher CPMs may still make sense, how aggressively to scale spend during promotional windows, why underspending can hurt your bottom line, and which evergreen campaigns should stay running throughout Q4.
As John puts it:
"If you open and close and open and close and open and close the exact same offer, you haven't created scarcity. You have created a lie."
Why Q4 promotions should be built in distinct phases
How different customer types shop at different points in the holiday season
Why some brands should shift more budget into late December instead of Black Friday
Why free gifts can outperform deeper discounts at higher cart thresholds
How to protect margin while increasing perceived offer value
Why cold traffic may perform better on evergreen product and collection pages
How to warm up your email list before major promotional windows
Why plain text emails can still be powerful during Q4
How to set monthly revenue, ROAS, spend, and profitability targets
When increasing ad spend can produce more total profit even at lower margins
Why evergreen ads should stay live during Black Friday and holiday promotions
How AI can support reporting, forecasting, creative analysis, and inventory tracking
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00:14 – Episode 300 introduction
00:54 – Omnisend sponsor message
01:13 – John Grimshaw on what the data from Black Friday 2025 revealed
02:39 – Why Q4 promotions should happen in phases
03:15 – Creating real scarcity without repeating the same offer
04:32 – Identifying when your customers actually buy
05:52 – Why late December can be a major opportunity
07:49 – Give a gift instead of a deeper discount
10:14 – Protecting margin while increasing perceived value
10:50 – Why cold traffic and holiday sales pages do not always mix
13:38 – Early Black Friday timing and giving your list time to recharge
14:18 – Seasonal popups and quick email wins
15:41 – Why plain text emails still work
16:20 – Warming up your list before the sale
17:50 – Pep Hufen takes over with Q4 paid media strategy
19:26 – Understanding what type of Q4 brand you actually have
20:23 – Why rising CPMs do not always mean worse acquisition costs
21:46 – Setting monthly targets before you start spending
24:17 – Daily scorecards, accountability, and profitability
25:13 – When lower margins can create more total profit
25:40 – How much to increase ad spend during major sale days
26:51 – Why underspending can hurt your bottom line
28:19 – Using AI for reporting, analytics, and accountability
30:16 – Why you should keep evergreen ads running in Q4
31:07 – Deadline ads, attribution windows, and transactional creative
33:01 – Partnership ads and sourcing creator content
33:46 – AppLovin as another Q4 acquisition channel
35:27 – Pep's Q4 planning checklist
36:29 – Closing CTA
Thank you for listening to the Smart Marketer Podcast!
And thank you for helping us reach 300 episodes. Whether you've been listening for years or just found the show, we appreciate you coming along for the ride.
If this episode helped you think differently about Q4 offers, email, paid media, or profitability, share it with another ecommerce founder or marketer heading into the holiday season.
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Questions or feedback? Reach us at support@smartmarketer.com.
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