Kalshi had Flávio Bolsonaro at roughly 85% to win Brazil's presidential election. Then Lula won the runoff. Was the prediction market wrong? Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour explains what really happened, and what it means for the 2026 midterms.Mansour breaks down the biggest misunderstanding about prediction markets: a 25% chance isn't zero. It means that outcome should happen one in four times. He explains how markets absorb new information in real time, why accuracy can only be judged across thousands of markets (not one), and why Kalshi's odds are a probability, not a poll.