Join our weekly live Q&A for exclusive sessions like this one! https://chipstockinvestor.com/features-and-pricing#pricingMicron stock: why does a memory maker with capacity sold out through fiscal 2028 still trade at a ~13x P/E?In this video: why cyclical stocks often look cheapest near the top of a cycle, what a reverse DCF says Micron is pricing in, and how our normalized profit calculator reframes its valuation.A reverse DCF at today’s price implies just 4% annual EPS growth for three years, which is far below what Micron should earn next year alone. When we normalize instead (50% revenue CAGR, net margin easing from ~63% to 50%, 5% annual buybacks, and a 10x exit multiple), Micron looks more like a 17x stock, with a midpoint fair value around $1,700 per share. The market isn’t wrong. It’s pricing in three to five years of elevated profit and treating everything after that as a question mark. The thesis is a bet that the market will eventually reprice a better long-term outcome, and that’s why we’re still holding into 2027.Chapters0:00 - Why Cyclical Stocks Look Cheapest at the Worst Time1:00 - Viewer Question: Micron Sold Out Through 2028, So Is It Cheap?1:45 - Using Normalized Profit for Companies That Are Over-Earning2:30 - The Market Isn’t Wrong, It’s Pricing Probabilities5:00 - Micron as a Memory IDM: The Boom-Bust Layer of the Supply Chain6:50 - Why We’re Likely Not at Peak Memory Cycle Yet7:30 - Reverse DCF: Where the Model Breaks for Micron8:45 - Normalizing MU: 50% Revenue CAGR, Margins Down to 50%11:00 - From 13x to 17x P/E and a Fair Value Range13:00 - “This Time Is Different” and Why We’re Still Holding MU— LINKS & RESOURCES —Join Semi Insider — $120/yearSemi Insider is Chip Stock Investor's paid research service: all research as it happens, the CSI 100 + quarterly outlook, dashboard tools (Compare Companies, Reverse DCF, supply-chain mapping), weekly live Q&A, portfolio moves before execution, and the private Discord.Join: https://chipstockinvestor.com/features-and-pricingFree demo: https://demo.chipstockinvestor.com/All our links & socials: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestorContent in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.CSI owns shares of Micron as of publication. Positions can change without notice.