Over the summer, the IEA projected that carbon emissions from the world's power sector are on track for a new record in 2026. Electricity demand is expected to grow 20% faster than it did a year ago, and this year's gas shock has pushed some countries to use more coal.
But we're fresh off a new milestone for the energy transition. Last year, wind and solar grew enough to cover virtually all of the world's new electricity demand and fossil power fell, so emissions from power plants didn't rise.
So was last year a peak we can count on, or simply a pause? Over the Energy Transition Show's history, we've seen carbon emissions stall out before. In 2017, global emissions had barely grown for three years, and some thought that was it. But then they started to rise again.
How confident can we be that fossil power emissions are truly close to their peak? In this second episode of our documentary series, we follow that question through Chris Nelder's conversations with the analysts who have been tracking it, from 2017 to today. We'll hear the signs of a lasting decline versus a temporary dip, why emerging markets can stop fossil power from growing even if the coal plants they already have don't shut down, and why so much of the answer depends on what China does next.
Featured in this episode, in the order we hear their conversations:
* Zeke Hausfather, climate scientist and energy systems analyst at Berkeley Earth, on
Episode #40 (2017)
* Lauri Myllyvirta, Lead Analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, on
Episode #138 (2021) and
Episode #271 (2026)
* Kingsmill Bond, Energy Strategist at Carbon Tracker, on
Episode #152 (2021)
* Tim Gould, co-head of the World Energy Outlook at the International Energy Agency, on
Episode #242 (2025)
* Muyi Yang, Senior Energy Analyst for Asia at Ember, on
Episode #260 (2025)
* Sam Butler-Sloss, Research Manager at Ember, on
Episode #260 (2025)
* Nic Fulghum, Senior Data Analyst at Ember, on
Episode #274 (2026)
* Aditya Lolla, Interim Managing Director of Ember, on
Episode #280 (2026)