This has been a year of distinct seasons for financial markets. The first quarter was dominated by the joint U.S./Israeli attack on Iran and its aftermath. The second was about booming tech earnings. The third quarter saw a sharp rise in long-term interest rates due, in part, to new leadership at the Federal Reserve. In the fourth quarter, the focus will be ... Show More
Sep 21
The PCE-CPI Gap and the Outlook for Further Fed Tightening
On balance, I don’t believe that the Federal Reserve should have raised interest rates last week. However, I must confess that there was one reference in Chairman Warsh’s press conference that left me distinctly uneasy. He noted that year-over-year inflation rates, as measured by ... Show More
12m 3s
Sep 14
The Fed Paints itself into a Rate-Hiking Corner
In the Broadway musical, Fiddler on the Roof, Tevye, the well-meaning patriarch of a poor family, has to make some tough choices in a complicated time. Tevye, (who always reminded me of my father-in-law, Bill), has trouble deciding and three times during the play the music comes ... Show More
10m 46s
<p>– Unemployment falls, hard...</p> <p>– ... but inflation doesn't budge</p> <p>– Armaguard on the brink and the future of cash</p> <p>– What mergers and demergers can tell us (and what they can't)</p><p>See <a href="https://omnystudio.com/listener">omnystudio.com/listener</a> f ... Show More
