Axon seems to come up in a lot of investing discussion, but its largest competitor often doesn't. Motorola is more than three times the size of Axon.
We've done a few videos on Axon, but never on its biggest competitor: Motorola Solutions (MSI). So this time we put them side by side, along with the wider public safety sector, because you shouldn't make a portfolio decision on either one without understanding the other.
Motorola is far bigger — $3.1B in quarterly revenue versus Axon's $904M — but growing slower at 13% year over year against Axon's 35%.
Motorola is the profitable, shareholder-friendly value name (nearly 26% operating margins, $326M in buybacks and $201M in dividends last quarter). Axon is the high-growth leader that barely makes money today and carries the uncertainty that comes with aggressive acquisitions and heavy stock-based comp.
We also get into why this is really a physical-AI story: both companies are pushing hard into drones — Axon with Skydio and Dedrone, Motorola with Brinc and its Defend Solutions acquisition — neither building the hardware themselves, both focused on the software that runs it.
We run a reverse DCF on each, including how we think about "normalizing" Axon's not-yet-real profitability, to see what growth each stock needs to justify today's price.
TIMESTAMPS
0:00 - Why Motorola Deserves a Look Before You Buy Axon
1:00 - Public Safety as a Physical AI Thesis (and the Flock Backlash)
2:00 - Drone Startups: Ondas, Red Cat, Unusual Machines
3:00 - Motorola vs. Axon: Size vs. Growth
3:40 - The Drone Push: Skydio, Brinc, and Software-First Strategy
6:00 - Margins and Profitability: Where Motorola Leads
7:30 - Motorola's Earnings Highlights and Segment KPIs
9:30 - Reverse DCF on Motorola: The Value Case
11:15 - Reverse DCF on Axon: Normalizing "Pretend Profitability"
13:30 - Final Take: Buy, Watch List, or a Public Safety Basket
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Content in this episode is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted, and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. CSI owns shares of Axon.