On March 13, 1930, Adolf Hitler was sitting in the passenger seat of his chauffeur-driven car when a trailer truck sped through an intersection and struck the vehicle, pushing it across the road and stopping just short of crushing it. Everyone survived. Three years later, Hitler became chancellor of Germany. Would tens of millions of people still have died if the truck had killed him? To many people, the answer is obviously yes, because Hitler was uniquely evil. To many others, the answer is obviously no, because the Treaty of Versailles and hyperinflation had already created the conditions for catastrophe. Jared Diamond spent decades trying to figure out who is right, and his answer is: it depends on the circumstances, and we can actually test it.
Today's guest is Jared Diamond, author of Guns, Germs, and Steel and now Profits, Prophets, Coaches, and Kings: (When) Do Leaders Matter? We discuss how the inbreeding of European royal families created a natural experiment proving that monarchs' intelligence directly affected national outcomes, why Botswana's founding president is the clearest modern example of an irreplaceable leader because only he could have given away his own tribe's diamond rights without starting a civil war, and why Genghis Khan's conquests depended on rainfall patterns revealed by tree rings. We also see that Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, and Steve Jobs all made a difference but none of them passes what he calls the Hamlet test. Diamond's framework applies across politics, business, sports, and religion, and his conclusion is that leaders matter most when three conditions align: high discretion, genuine choices between balanced alternatives, and no one else who could have made the same decisions.
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