Donald Trump's on again off again deal making with the Iranians has hit another flashpoint this week as exchanges of fire on commercial shipping and US military bases in the region stymied negotiations before their 60 day deadline. Although large-scale combat has subsided, the conflict between the United States and Iran is far from over. Nick Carl argues that Tehran has emerged from the war with a new strategic objective: establishing de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz and using it as a tool of coercion against the international community after its traditional sources of deterrence fell short. He also examines the regime's evolving leadership following Ali Khamenei's death, the continued discontent between Iran's rulers and its people, and why Tehran believes it can outlast the United States politically despite suffering major military setbacks. While conventional wisdom suggests Iranian weakness (as discussed in our many conversations with General Jack Keane), Tehran is nonetheless negotiating from a position of confidence. Will the United States remain committed to denying Iran control of the Strait? Can diplomacy succeed without rewarding Iranian aggression? And ultimately, who has the greater will to persist? Will President Trump accept a bad agreement or abandon his deal making desires in pursuit of a more decisive outcome?
Nicholas Carl is the Assistant Director for the Critical Threats Project and a Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he specializes in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Mr. Carl is the author of reports, analyses, and maps covering Iran’s regional strategy and nuclear program, military structure, and politics. His commentary and maps have been featured in a variety of media outlets, including The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, and Financial Times.
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