Markets may be entering one of the most important regime shifts in decades. Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to argue that the United States is moving away from traditional free market capitalism towards a far more strategic model where government, markets and technology become increasingly intertwined. They discuss why positioning continues to dominate market behaviour, the growing role of sovereign investment, the future of AI driven capital spending, and why the next major turning point may arrive after the US midterm elections. It is a conversation that challenges conventional market thinking and explores how politics, policy and capital are becoming inseparable.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - America at 250 and why major turning points often arrive after two and a half centuries
03:43 - Why positioning matters more than headlines in today's markets
07:53 - Soft US jobs data and the disconnect between markets and the economy
09:15 - June performance review for trend followers and CTAs
15:14 - Why America may be adopting a more strategic form of capitalism
19:14 - The case for a US sovereign wealth fund and reshaping the financial system
30:31 - Why the US dollar remains America's greatest strategic advantage
37:52 - AI investment, capital spending and why this cycle may be different
45:46 - Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent and the changing relationship between the Fed and Treasury
50:03 - The Summer of George and why market positioning dominates the summer months
52:22 - Why the US midterm elections could become the next major market catalyst
57:59 - Looking ahead to the second half of 2026
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