When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, economists were panicked. Several warned that a prolonged closure of the chokepoint could trigger a recession. After all, that’s what oil shocks do. But no recession came – even after oil prices jumped to almost twice their pre-war level. Why didn’t the global economy tumble into a recession – and are we out of the woods? Soumaya speaks to Tyler Goodspeed, author of ‘Recession: The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What to Do About It’. They discuss why the global economy has become more resistant to recessions, why the US has more downturns than the UK and why would-be recession-forecasters might be better off reading horoscopes.
UK public finances weathering Iran war, Andy Burnham to be told
Iran war could slow global growth to weakest since pandemic, IMF warns
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Presented by Soumaya Keynes. Produced by Mischa Frankl-Duval. Manuela Saragosa is the executive producer. Original music and sound design by Breen Turner. Broadcast engineering by Andrew Georgiades. Flo Phillips is the FT’s head of audio.
Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com
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